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RE: (meteorobs) Joe Rao's summation of the 2002 Leonids

Maybe some of the problem lies within ourselves.  We really shouldn't
give the public and media the idea that they are going to actually see
2,000 or 6,000 meteors in an hour.  Realistically no one can see that
many  meteors, especially 6,000 meteors or more.  It would be easier for
the public and media if when we tell them predictions that we leave it
at seeing a meteor every few seconds or even minutes.  The media and
public just don't understand ZHR. So when you tell them a huge ZHR then
they are disappointed that they didn't see that many.  I was very
satisfied with this years storm considering the moon.  The storm was
short between 10:07-11:00UT and there really wasn't any activity before
or after, but during that one hour period the sky opened up and it
turned out a good storm.  Without the moon the numbers would have
soared. 

David Stine 

-----Original Message-----
From: ataju@emaildot si [mailto:ataju@emaildot si] 
Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:33 AM
To: meteorobs@atmob.org
Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Joe Rao's summation of the 2002 Leonids

Mike,

  I am not sure what you're so angry about. You really shouldn't be that
angry
because you didn't see anything substantial from Hawaii. With the small
radiant
height of about 7 degrees at the peak (10:40 UT), poor LM5.3 and a high
population index (I suppose *at least* 2.3) you really shouldn't have
expected
much. If ZHR was 2800, then about 2 Leo/min should've been expected at
the peak,
4 per min if ZHR was 6000. With the rapid decline in ZHR after the peak
the
visual rates would've dropped very quickly despite increasing radiant
height. Am
I missing something here? Also, only one prediction was for ZHR 6000
with others
being lower. Especially Esko Lyytinen's, who has so far made the most
consistent
predictions, was for 'only' ZHR 2800. 
  Yes, the public perhaps shouldn't generally expect the numbers that
are
expected by astronomers. Norman McLeod said a couple of years ago that
the
public needs a much greater event in order to be satisified than
astronomers.
But in your case I would expect that you've taken all factors into
account and
did not expect 6000 Leo per hour over Hawaii? I don't want to flame you,
but
your anger seems, to me, somewhat unjustified?

Clear skies!

Jure A.
MBK Team / AS Orion
www.orion-drustvodot si/MBKTeam

P.S. -  Mike, I know the feeling after having missed a meteor storm, I
missed
the 1999 Leonid storm due to bad weather. Not nice...

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