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RE: (meteorobs) Joe Rao's summation of the 2002 Leonids
Guys, I have to say that I agree with Mr. Stine here. I am Octavian in Jakarta, Indonesia. I am just an amateur observer who curious about our sky. 2001 Leonid I had quite remarkable experience that I was looking forward to having it again this year. And as last year, I even published the news in my company's mailing list about the shower - esspecially with the time of predicted peak was perfect for most of Moslems who are conducting their Ramadhan's Sahur.
But as we all know, the shower was very-very disappointing. More than 70% clouds right overhead and the clearings were small and scattered in the polluted sky of the city that made me gave up hope. And the next day, most of my friends who tried to catch the glimpse of the shower complained about some kind of false-alarm. For them "shower" means lots of lots of lots...esspecially with the last year's experience, even I had explained about the low rates that we were encountering in Jakarta. What else could I say?!!
Maybe next time - for Geminids, maybe we can get the actual estimate number of meteors that someone could see with their unaided eyes. After all, most of us - the just curious amateur observers, doesn't have those fancy observation tools... ;-)
This is just a thought...
Best Regards,
Octavian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: David Stine [mailto:DStine@exposquare.com]
> Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2002 00:05
> To: meteorobs@atmob.org
> Subject: RE: (meteorobs) Joe Rao's summation of the 2002 Leonids
>
>
> Maybe some of the problem lies within ourselves. We really
> shouldn't give the public and media the idea that they are
> going to actually see 2,000 or 6,000 meteors in an hour.
> Realistically no one can see that many meteors, especially
> 6,000 meteors or more. It would be easier for the public and
> media if when we tell them predictions that we leave it at
> seeing a meteor every few seconds or even minutes. The media
> and public just don't understand ZHR. So when you tell them a
> huge ZHR then they are disappointed that they didn't see that
> many. I was very satisfied with this years storm considering
> the moon. The storm was short between 10:07-11:00UT and
> there really wasn't any activity before or after, but during
> that one hour period the sky opened up and it turned out a
> good storm. Without the moon the numbers would have soared.
>
> David Stine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ataju@emaildot si [mailto:ataju@emaildot si]
> Sent: Friday, November 22, 2002 7:33 AM
> To: meteorobs@atmob.org
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Joe Rao's summation of the 2002 Leonids
>
> Mike,
>
> I am not sure what you're so angry about. You really
> shouldn't be that angry because you didn't see anything
> substantial from Hawaii. With the small radiant height of
> about 7 degrees at the peak (10:40 UT), poor LM5.3 and a high
> population index (I suppose *at least* 2.3) you really
> shouldn't have expected much. If ZHR was 2800, then about 2
> Leo/min should've been expected at the peak, 4 per min if ZHR
> was 6000. With the rapid decline in ZHR after the peak the
> visual rates would've dropped very quickly despite increasing
> radiant height. Am I missing something here? Also, only one
> prediction was for ZHR 6000 with others being lower.
> Especially Esko Lyytinen's, who has so far made the most
> consistent predictions, was for 'only' ZHR 2800.
> Yes, the public perhaps shouldn't generally expect the
> numbers that are expected by astronomers. Norman McLeod said
> a couple of years ago that the public needs a much greater
> event in order to be satisified than astronomers. But in your
> case I would expect that you've taken all factors into
> account and did not expect 6000 Leo per hour over Hawaii? I
> don't want to flame you, but your anger seems, to me,
> somewhat unjustified?
>
> Clear skies!
>
> Jure A.
> MBK Team / AS Orion
> www.orion-drustvodot si/MBKTeam
>
> P.S. - Mike, I know the feeling after having missed a meteor
> storm, I missed the 1999 Leonid storm due to bad weather. Not nice...
>
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