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Re: (meteorobs) MNRAS
In a message dated 11/27/02 5:15:17 AM Eastern Standard Time,
Esko.Lyytinen@MINEDU.FI writes:
<< Besides the Leonids (and Ursids and Perseids, unfortunately not
Giacobinids, because of lack of time) >>
It is unfortunate that you don't have the time to work on the Giacobinids
dust trails Esko, because it would seem that this shower perhaps an excellent
opportunity to bring us enhanced activity . . . possibly even a brief meteor
storm . . . in 2018. As I had noted last week, an paper of mine that was
published in WGN 26-5 (October 1998), indicated that in 2018 the Earth will
follow Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner to the nodal crossing point by just 22.7
days, and the separation between the orbits of Earth and comet will be 0.017
AU. This is roughly midway between the C-E value for the Draconid storm
observed from Europe in 1933 (50 to 480 meteors per minute) and a heavy 1985
shower (ZHR ~ 600 to 800) seen from Japan.
I do not yet know of any dust-trail predictions yet made for 2018, but
applying the old "analog method" of matching our orbit relative to that of
21P, the Earth is due to arrive at the comet's nodal crossing point at 0h UT
on October 9, which would correspond to 20h EDT (dark sky conditions) on
October 8 along the US East Coast. Add to this that the Moon will be new and
conditions seem ideal.
So an analysis by someone with the ability to look ahead 16 years at
Earth's interaction with any prospective dust trails in 2018 would certainly
be most interesting.
-- joe rao
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