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(meteorobs) Meteor Activity Outlook for November 29-December 5, 2002



Title:

Meteor Activity Outlook for 
 November 29-December 5, 2002

By Robert Lunsford 
AMS Operations Manager

The moon will reach its new phase on Wednesday December 4. At this time it rises and sets with the sun and will not interfere with meteor observing at any time during the night. This weekend the waning crescent moon will not be much of a factor as it will rise late in the dark morning hours. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near 4 for those in the Northern Hemisphere and 2 for those south of the equator.  For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near 18 for those located in the Northern Hemisphere and 15 for those located in the Southern Hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from all sources of light pollution. The actual activity one may see will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity. 

The positions listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning November 30/December 1. The positions do not change greatly day to day so these positions may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and libraries) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing which constellations are in the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your location. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the horizon. The radiants below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The radiants listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night. This list also provides the order of ascending velocity for each radiant with those listed first usually being much slower than those last on the list. Velocity should not be the prime factor for shower association as all showers can produce slow meteors. Slow meteors can be produced from normally swift showers, such as the Leonids, when meteors appear near the radiant or close to the horizon. The true velocity is only revealed in shower members seen far from the radiant and high in the sky.

The Phoenicids is a periodic shower that rarely produces much activity at all. The only impressive display produced by this shower occurred in 1956 when ZHR's were near 100. Since the December 6 maximum occurs close to the new moon, this will be a good year to try to see any activity. The radiant is located at 01:00 (015) -52. This position lies in eastern Phoenix some 8 degrees northwest of the bright zero magnitude star Achernar (Alpha Eridani). These meteors are best seen near 2100 (9pm) local standard time when the radiant lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. due to the southerly declination this shower is not visible north of the Northern Tropical areas. The deep Southern Hemisphere has the best chance of seeing any activity. At 18 km/sec. the Phoenicids produce very slow meteors.

The Antihelion source is now centered at 05:36 (084) +23. This area of the sky is located in eastern Taurus, 2 degrees north of the 3rd magnitude star Zeta Tauri. Since this source is large and diffuse, any slow to medium speed meteor from eastern Taurus or western Gemini could be a candidate for this shower. The area of the sky is best placed near 0100 local standard time when it lies on the meridian and is highest in the sky.  At this time expect to see 3 shower members per hour from locations north of the equator and 1 per hour for sites south of the equator.

Unlike most of the annual showers the antihelion source is produced by debris from unknown objects orbiting in a direct motion like the earth. These objects are most likely asteroids, which produce stony and metallic debris whose density is much greater than material produced by comets. This debris collides with the earth on the inbound portion of its orbit, before its closest approach to the sun. Therefore we best see them just after midnight when we are facing the direction from which this activity appears. The antihelion source is active all year from an area of the sky nearly opposite that of the sun. The center of this source will move approximately one degree eastward per day and travels through many different constellations over the course of a year. It  may make sense to list these meteors as antihelions or "ANT" but a majority of meteor organizations prefer that you list them from the constellation in which the radiant is currently located or the constellation where the shower reaches maximum activity. IMO observers should currently list these meteors as Chi Orionids or "XOR".

The Monocerotids are currently active from a radiant located at 06:04 (091) +08. This area of the sky is located in northeastern Orion, 3 degrees northeast of the bright orange 1st magnitude star Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis). These meteors are best seen near 0100 local standard time when the radiant lies highest above the horizon.  The peak for the Monocerotids occurs on December 8 when the ZHR reaches 3. Currently we can only expect to see perhaps 1 shower member per hour. At 42 km/sec. the Monocerotids produce meteors of average velocity.

The Puppid-Velids are a complex system of showers best seen from the Southern Hemisphere. The DMS's Zeta Puppid radiant of November is no doubt part of this complex. The center of this complex is currently located at 08:00 (120) -45. This area of the sky is located in eastern Puppis, 2 degrees northwest of the second magnitude star Gamma Velorum. These meteors are best seen near 0300 local standard time when the radiant lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. While these meteors are best seen from the Southern Hemisphere, some activity may be seen as far north as the northern tropic areas. At 40 km/sec. the Zeta Puppids produce meteors of average velocity. ZHR's for the entire complex, encompassing a large area of Puppis and Vela, is near 10.

The Sigma Hydrids are currently active from a radiant located at 07:52 (118) +04. This area of the sky is located in southeastern Canis Minor, 3 degrees southeast of the bright zero magnitude star Procyon (Alpha Canis Minoris). These meteors are best seen near 0300 local standard time when the radiant lies highest above the horizon.  The peak for the Sigma Hydrids occurs on December 12 when the ZHR reaches 3. Current rates would be less than 1 shower member per hour. At 58 km/sec. the Monocerotids produce meteors of average to swift velocity.

The Northern Apex source is now centered at 10:36 (159) +23. This position lies in northern Leo 5 degrees northeast of the famous 2nd magnitude double star Algeiba (Gamma Leonis). This area of the sky is best placed for viewing during the last dark hour before dawn. Since this source is large and diffuse any meteors from Leo Minor or northern Leo could be a good candidate for this shower. This source should provide at least 3 meteors per hour for those in the Northern Hemisphere and less than 1 per hour for those in the Southern Hemisphere.   

Like the antihelion source both apex areas are active all year long and travel approximately one degree eastward per day. Unlike the antihelion debris these particles orbit the sun in a retrograde motion opposite that of the earth and are most likely produced by unknown comets. They strike the earth after their closest approach to the sun. Since they are moving in opposite directions these particles strike the earth at tremendous velocities often creating bright meteors with persistent trains. These particles strike the earth on the morning side of earth and are best seen just before morning twilight while the sky is still perfectly dark. There are meteors with a zero inclination that radiate precisely from the apex point on the ecliptic, exactly 90 degrees west of the sun. These meteors are rare though as the earth orbits the sun it "sweeps clean" much of the material that shares the same orbit. Much more debris is located just north and south of the earth's orbit with slightly higher or lower inclinations. This creates the northern and southern branches of the apex activity. Meteors from both branches are normally included in the sporadic count but could also be noted in some manner as to which branch of the apex complex they appear to radiate.

The Southern Apex source lies exactly 30 degrees south of its northern counterpart at 10:36 (159) -07. This position lies in a barren star field in southeastern Sextans. Like the northern apex, these meteors are best seen toward dawn when the radiant lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Any meteor from Sextans, Hydra, Crater or extreme southeastern Leo could a candidate from this source. Rates would be now close to 2 per hour regardless of your location.

The Sporadic rates for the Northern Hemisphere have now reached their plateau of top activity, which occurs during the entire last quarter of the year. One would currently expect to see perhaps 10 random meteors per hour during the last hours before dawn from rural observing sites. This estimate and the morning estimate for the Southern Hemisphere does not include the apex meteors listed above. During the evening hours perhaps 4 random meteors can be seen per hour from the Northern Hemisphere. Rates seen from the Southern Hemisphere are now rising from their annual low with perhaps 6 random meteors being seen per hour during the early morning hours and 2 per hour during the evening. 

Clear Skies!
Robert Lunsford