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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Geminids in Jakarta, Indonesia
Hi,
I'm not aware of anyone making changes (except perhaps of a few minutes)
to the predicted time of the 2002 Leonid peaks. Rates are always an
issue and I suspect most observers are seduced by the reported errors in
ZHR calculations that do not include a full error propogation for
all factors that are used in the determination of ZHRs. I have never
accepted formal statistical errors even when I was the JAS meteor section
director in the UK. I considered a second significant figure in many ZHRs
as questionable. With masses of observations, a second significant
figure is reasonable, but I don't believe it.
The 2 comets I refer to were discovered about 70 years ago and about
10 years ago. The former was when someone trying to confirm a new comet
was sent the wrong coordinates and believed they had confirmed a new
comet, but had in fact discovered a different one. The other was when
the Shoemakers had the wrong mean anomaly in their orbit for a comet
Levy. Instead of observing comet Levy, they found another one following
comet Levy by the exact amount of their error in mean anomaly! The comets
has split on a previous occasion. Gary Kronk and others will have this
info at their fingertips. Perhaps Hoenig is another but I know nothing of
it's discovery circumstance.
Cheers, Rob
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