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RE: (meteorobs) Possible outburst March 1 2003


This is indeed considered very reliable as to the close encouter of the
trail.
The thing that may make this suspicious is the dimness of the parent
comet as compared to the parent comets of Lyrids and Aurigids (known
long period comet with showers and outbursts observed).

The trail streching can be considered to be proportional to the
semimajor-axis powered to 2.5. With this comet it is about 100, that is
ten times bigger than with the Leonids, so the trail is about 300 times
more streched than a 1-rev. Leonid-trail, making it less dense by about
that much. Because of quite central (about 10000km, inside the Earth
orbit) and 1-rev and high inclination, the outburst width (in time) is
expected to be very small maybe only about ten minutes the strongest
phase (might be even shorter). The meteors are expected to be relatively
bright, probably mostly NOT real fire-balls (there may well be those
among) but not dim either. Because of the brief observing period, even
possible moderate rates may not give many meteors.
Don't expect a storm. Because of the strecthing by long period, a stom
level is very very improbable.


It is impossible to give any rates-prediction, but if one tries to
observe, I recommend to try to get an as wide a coverage as possible
even close to horizon, for the short time interval.
The timing is expected to be accurate to 15 minutes or probably even
better, but be ready for a possible little more error in the timing.
The radiant is above horizon also in South Africa, but about only ten
degrees, I recall.
Radio M-scatter observers in the South are adviced to keep their
receivers ready.

I hope that something will be observed.

Esko

>>>

Among the possible outbursts mentioned in the article by
Lyytinen/Jenniskens there is an entry for March 1, 2003. The outburst is
related to particles from comet C/1976 D1. 

The radiant should be at RA 013, Dec -64 (only visible from the southern
hemisphere)  and the predicted time is 2003/03/01 21:54 UT (340.861
J2000).

The entry is listed in bold which means it is one of 'the more certain
predictions'.

There will be no lunar interference.

I took a quick look and it seems that South America might be the most
suitable place for observations, balancing darkness and radiant
altitude.

Daniel




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