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Re: (meteorobs) Possible outburst March 1 2003



what about radio echoes ? there is any chance ? where to fight ?

regards,

John ON4EU

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Lyytinen Esko" <Esko.Lyytinen@MINEDU.FI>
To: <meteorobs@atmob.org>
Sent: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 2:13 PM
Subject: RE: (meteorobs) Possible outburst March 1 2003


> 
> 
> This is indeed considered very reliable as to the close encouter of the
> trail.
> The thing that may make this suspicious is the dimness of the parent
> comet as compared to the parent comets of Lyrids and Aurigids (known
> long period comet with showers and outbursts observed).
> 
> The trail streching can be considered to be proportional to the
> semimajor-axis powered to 2.5. With this comet it is about 100, that is
> ten times bigger than with the Leonids, so the trail is about 300 times
> more streched than a 1-rev. Leonid-trail, making it less dense by about
> that much. Because of quite central (about 10000km, inside the Earth
> orbit) and 1-rev and high inclination, the outburst width (in time) is
> expected to be very small maybe only about ten minutes the strongest
> phase (might be even shorter). The meteors are expected to be relatively
> bright, probably mostly NOT real fire-balls (there may well be those
> among) but not dim either. Because of the brief observing period, even
> possible moderate rates may not give many meteors.
> Don't expect a storm. Because of the strecthing by long period, a stom
> level is very very improbable.
> 
> 
> It is impossible to give any rates-prediction, but if one tries to
> observe, I recommend to try to get an as wide a coverage as possible
> even close to horizon, for the short time interval.
> The timing is expected to be accurate to 15 minutes or probably even
> better, but be ready for a possible little more error in the timing.
> The radiant is above horizon also in South Africa, but about only ten
> degrees, I recall.
> Radio M-scatter observers in the South are adviced to keep their
> receivers ready.
> 
> I hope that something will be observed.
> 
> Esko
> 
> >>>
> 
> Among the possible outbursts mentioned in the article by
> Lyytinen/Jenniskens there is an entry for March 1, 2003. The outburst is
> related to particles from comet C/1976 D1. 
> 
> The radiant should be at RA 013, Dec -64 (only visible from the southern
> hemisphere)  and the predicted time is 2003/03/01 21:54 UT (340.861
> J2000).
> 
> The entry is listed in bold which means it is one of 'the more certain
> predictions'.
> 
> There will be no lunar interference.
> 
> I took a quick look and it seems that South America might be the most
> suitable place for observations, balancing darkness and radiant
> altitude.
> 
> Daniel
> 
> 
> 
> 
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