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(meteorobs) Fwd: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH- 17 March



Hi:

 Since meteor activity is a tad low, here is an alert. Hey who knows
you may get a fireball by the aurora :o

From: STD:

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                    WATCH ISSUED: 20:50 UTC, 17 MARCH 2003

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VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 19 MARCH

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 17 - 18 MAR (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 17 - 19 MAR

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 18, 12, 12 (17 MARCH - 20 MARCH)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
   MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
   STATE TO NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

   SCOTLAND TO NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO SOUTHERN FINLAND AND
   POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REACHES GERMANY, POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA AND
   ESTONIA, TO NORTHERN USSR. NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS
   OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

 Effects of a well placed solar coronal hole possibly combined with
effects of a coronal mass ejection associated with a filament eruption a few
days ago are expected to produce periods of enhanced solar wind conditions
capable of producing periods of moderately strong auroral substorm activity.
Minor to major auroral substorming is possible over the high latitudes during
the next 12 hours.

 Effects of todays major X-class solar flare have not been included in
this assessment. The data associated with this event will be analyzed
separately and may warrant extending this watch. Details may follow in an
update to this watch if deemed necessary.

 This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
19 March. It will then be updated or allowed to expire.

              PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

 Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.

**  End of Watch  **
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