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Re: (meteorobs) Question: Leonids 2003



Hi, Quanzhi,

Esko Lyytinen et al.'s paper on Earth, Moon and Planets in 1999 predicted a
part of resonant dust trail, which was ejected from the comet 15 revolutions
(comet's) ago, may encounter the earth in 2003 on November 13.

But this is rather uncertain. Since the part of the dust trail of interest
has been in the 1:3, instead of 5:14 resonant belt, of Jupiter for several
centuries. This difference made the dust trail finish only 14 rev. when the
parent comet have completed its 15 rev.. Furthermore, the higher intensity
of Jupiter's 1:3 resonant belt than 5:14 one may play a difference but
uncertain role. (?)

In addition, according to David Asher et al's explanation for 1998 fireball
event, resonance may protect dense trail from serious diffusion. But Peter
Jenniskens' ApJ paper argued this with so-called Filament component. So, it
may be very important that which one is correct for the formation of
previous Leonid "fireball peak". While, I've wagered a travel for this
year's event with a colleague of mine --Zhilin Zhang. If the 14/15-rev. dust
trail is observed, I'll pay for the entire fee for her one month's travel to
the United States. But if it is not observed, i'll be invited to her
hometown, Xiamen, for one month's vocation. #:-P

BTW, it is better you use entire English plain text format, including your
name as appeared in front of the mail's title, and the advertisement at the
end, since few one can read Chinese characters here. And, it is more common
to use your given name (Quanzhi) here than your surname (Ye).


Kind regards,
Huan


----- Original Message -----
From: "Ҷ Ȫ־" <tom6740@yahoo.com.cn>
To: <meteorobs@atmob.org>
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 10:35 PM
Subject: (meteorobs) Question: Leonids 2003


> Hi list,
>   Although everyone know all the prediction says it
> won't be storm in 2003, but I still want to know where
> the dusts at that time. Are there some famous
> prediction? Who can tell me? Thanks.
> Cheers,
> Ye
>
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