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RE: (meteorobs) Re:Question: Leonids 2003


Hi,

As I understad, the old meteoroids near the parent comet are more or
less confined to resonances, even though may be called 'filament'. For
example in my opinion the 1998 bolid outburst was caused by several
early releases of particles. The resonant particles from 1333, as
suggested by David and Rob (and the integration verified also by myself)
could not explain (in my opinion) the whole long lasting strong event. I
think that several returns around 800 AD were at least for a big part
responsible for this. And these particles were also in a similar type
resonance. This whole 'collection' may be called filament. It is however
expected to be mostly confined to the 2.4 year wide (one fifth of
Jupiter orbital period) resonant window.

Some particles can jump to adjacent windows and possibly trapped there
again in resonance. Also the parent comet itself was captured to the
present resonace roughly around 700AD. Before this, the comet 'passed
by' the different present windows and could leave there some matherial,
although (because of the required da0, to stay in the window) preferably
mostly (or only?) smaller matherial. The year 2003 is about two windows
'aside' from the primary window. Before 2001, I had modelled some old
particles to encounter several hours before the predicted storms, but I
think that I did see here in Finland in the local morning hours of Nov.
18, (roughly around 02UT, I recall), more of these (relatively bright
but not bolids like in 1998) than I would have expected. These may have
been in the resonant window adjacent to the 'primary window'. There
might again in 2003 appear more or less such surprises. Actually I think
it probable that something presently unmodelled will appear, but I also
think that a strong (if any) bolid shower will be unlike.

As to the modelling of years around different cometary returns, I have
got the impression that the bolid shower in 1998 was something even less
common than relatively strong storms. I am not quite sure about this
conclusion. I have paid more attention to this than to many other years.

Some level bolid showers are probably not rare, but to be as strong and
to last as long as in 1998 might be almost unique. The storm in 1799
probably was even stronger (in maximum) and at least in part from oldish
resonant matherial from several trails.
Then the recent 2001 Asian peak is expected to have consisted (besides
the 4-rev. strongest ZHR) from the 9, 10 11 and probably 12 rev. bright
meteors.

Esko

>>>

Hi, Quanzhi,

>   Thanks for your reply. It's difficult for me to join
> this BBS, and it's more difficult for me to read and
> post messages in English, but it's the most difficult
> for me to reply message! :-|

The Shuimu Tsinghua BBS runs in telnet, and will be 
rather slow if you use WWW. And i suggest you 
getting a special software to log in.

>   I've read your message, and you mean there're two
> possible ZHR in Leonids 2003, one is Nov.13 and the
> other is Nov.19? Thanks a lot, I'll be more careful in
> that time.

Not exactly. It is still unknown whether the filament component of
Leonids can last till 2003, as it may have be too long a time 
since the comet's return in 1998.

BTW, does anyone know any new prediction for this potential event? I
just asked Esko for his previous paper, but forgot to 
ask about this. :-P

However, the annual shower will in any way make up a minor 
and wide peak. But I don't know the precise time (but sure not on
November 13). The exact time can be calculated with the 
orbit of the parent body, 55P/Tempel-Tuttle.

>   Fireball peak of 1998... I really hope it'll back in
> this year, I observated it when I was 10 in,
> wonderful. But you don't want it, do you? I don't
> understand what you were saying very much, but I know
> that you've wagered with a girl. Oh yes, could I know
> which collage are you in now? Not in The 80th Middle
> School now, er?

The fireball show in 1998 is really spectacular, indeed. 
But I wagered with Zhilin Zhang only on account of 
our different guesswork of the interference of the 1:3 
resonance with Jupiter. This maybe more scientific but 
hopeful. Of course, a fireball show in upcoming November
is also a good news for me. Zhilin Zhang is the president of the 
Association of Astronomy in Nankai University.

I'm to be officially in Peking University later this year, but in fact, 
i've been studying there for almost one year.


Best wishes,
Huan
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