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(meteorobs) Modelling question
A few scientifically naive questions directed towards the modelling experts
in the group. According to Gary Kronk's seminal book Meteor Showers, a
significant Lyrid outburst occurred in 1803 (~700 meteors per hour), and
activity on the order of 100 per hour was observed in 1850, 1922, 1945 and
1982. As no two intervals are the same or even share common factors, there
is no obvious orbital period embedded in these dates. Kronk concludes "it
might be possible that the Lyrid orbit contains several irregularly spaced
knots of material that could make it impossible to arrive at an accurate
period based on visual observations."
Is it reasonable to suppose that on much smaller scales there are
self-similar knots of material? At what point can actual observations be
attributed to the physical structure of the stream as opposed to random
chance? Can an observation by a single observer of six bright meteors in a
half hour superposed on a background rate of one meteor per similar interval
possibly be statistically significant, or can it safely be consigned to the
dustbin of small number statistics? More importantly, at what point do
observations carry enough statistical clout to make that leap into
structural modelling with a reasonable degree of confidence?
regards, Bruce
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