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(meteorobs) Some Perseids above annual in 2003?
The Perseids 11-revolution trail from the year 569 is expected to give
some Perseids meteors above the annual background.
The old trail is much disturbed and has a small fM-value (ie. streched
very weak in that part of the trail). Presently, encounters to happen
need an earlier strong effect by Jupiter or Saturn by a relatively close
passing (within 2 AU or so) when the meteorids came to some earlier
return into the inner solar system. After such a pass the fM will
typically be quite small in this part of the trail in the subsequent
returns.
So the eccess now may be about a few dozens(?) The peak will be at solar
longitude 139.82, (or between 139.81 and 139.82). This is close to, or
some minutes past 0 UT in August 13.
This same trail may have been at least in part responsible for the new
peak in the early 1990's and in 1997. The 1998 peak was probably caused
by the 7-rev. trail. The cause of the clearly visible peak in 1996 is
still unknown in spite of quite extensive searching.
Hopefully we will see something even more interesting in next year
Perseids with the one revolution trail encounter.
Esko
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