[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

(meteorobs) Re: [IMO-News] meteors as a test for cometary orbit



Hello Esko, Jeremie and everyone,

I just have a check with this computation. The orbit of the comet was taken
from K. Yau et al., MNRAS, 1994, vol. 266, pp.305-316.

As my direct result, a part of the dust trail ejected in 569 WILL have close
encounter with the earth at solar longitude 139.806 of this year, 2003. This
confirms Esko's result.

I also noticed that the spacial 'zigzag' structure in the cross section,
which was probably caused by previous perturbations but were rare for the
Leonids, may bring us a SHORT sub-peak some minutes later than the main peak
mention above and in Esko's prediction. The solar longitude was about
139.83. This sub-peak could be fairly weak, since it has larger missing
distance. Another weaker enhancement may occur as well, but its nodal time
falls into the main peak, and may become undistinguishable. However, the
minor component was rather
uncertain.

In addition, since I used simplified method, some of non-gravitational
effects ignored may lead to slight trend or bias of the result. The
modification value may be 15 minutes or a little more, i.e. the main peak at
00h03m UT, Aug. 13, and the unconfident subpeak at about 00h39m UT, Aug. 13.

Any way, the Perseids observations of this year should be very important.

Clear skies,
Huan



The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
To stop getting all email from the 'meteorobs' lists, use our Webform:
http://www.meteorobs.org/subscribe.html