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Re: (meteorobs) 2003 Leonid web page



Hi, Jeremie and all,

Last year, I used to test the Esko et al.'s result of 2003 Leonids, i.e. the
predicted outburst by 1499 dust trail, and finally reached similar result.
While, as I said before Perseids this year, I'm searching for the possible
numerical relation among delta-a, the population index and the age of an
outburst. The aim is to predict the population index. My current result can
predict the mass indices (and population index, of course) of Leonid
outbursts in the future, and explain many historical records very well.

For catching up the upcoming Leonids, I have hurriedly submitted a paper on
this problem to MNRAS. However, I just found some crucial and stupid error
in the theoretical deduction, although the result still met the true value
by accident. I'm now preparing a revised version of that paper. In any way,
now, the paper is not likely to be published before the Leonids. Thus, I
think meteorobs list is one of the best place to talk about the prediction
for the population index this year.

With my formula, the prediction of the population index (r-value) of the
dust trail ejected in 1499 (encounter the earth on November 13), is 4.92.
This value is just for the maximum time, and may vary 0.1-1 at other time of
the outburst (not the background activity!). Such high index has never been
observed in the Leonids (either in other meteor showers?). So, we expect the
event in this year to be very weak for visual observers, but somewhat
stronger for more powerful detectors, such as radio and radar.

While processing Turkish observations of Perseids this year (mentioned in
this list several months ago. I forget the name of observers, my
apologies...), I found the population index had been up to 10! Though the
terrible interference of moonlight may magnify it, the observations
suggested very high population index may be possible.

In addition, the occurrence of exception is not impossible, since the 1499
trail has traveled in 1:3 resonant belt of Jupiter for hundreds of years.
Comparing with previous 5:14 resonant trails, this one is rather unique. And
the distribution of meteoroids may undergo other kind of control.


Best regards,
Huan




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Jeremie VAUBAILLON" <vaubaill@imcce.fr>
To: "IMO-news" <imo-news@yahoogroups.com>
Cc: "meteorobs" <meteorobs@atmob.org>
Sent: Friday, October 10, 2003 4:52 PM
Subject: (meteorobs) 2003 Leonid web page


> Hello you all,
>
> Here is a sumary of our predictions for 2003 Leonids :
> www.imcce.fr/s2p/leonides/predictions/Leonid_forecast_2003.html
>
> Coming : an article submitted to WGN, in collaboration with Esko
> Lyytinen, Marku Nissinen and David Asher.
>
> See also the Peter Jenniskens' (NASA) page about the filament structure :
> http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
>
> Jeremie
>
> -- 
> ************************************************************
> * Jeremie VAUBAILLON
> * Institut de Mecanique Celeste et de Calcul
> * des Ephemerides (www.imcce.fr, ex bdl.fr)
> * 77 Avenue Denfert Rochereau
> * 75014 PARIS
> * FRANCE
> ************************************************************
> * tel : +33 (0)1 40 51 22 66
> * fax : +33 (0)1 40 51 20 58
> * URL : http://www.imcce.fr/Equipes/GAP/JV/equipeGAP-JV-GB.html
> ************************************************************
>
>
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