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(meteorobs) Leonids meteor shower peak this year - 17, 18, 19 or 20 Nov??

Local astronomy club member Roger Greenwood read an excerpt
from the North American Meteor Network's "NAMN Notes" this
week, and asked me the following question:

>...[NAMN was] quoted that the peak of the showers was to be
>9:30 p.m. EST, Monday the 17th. Could you possibly confirm
>that as I've seen it predicted for the early morning of the
>19th. I may pull an all nighter and want to make it count...


Roger, you're right that there are indeed good predictions
for early the morning of Wednesday, 19 November:

  http://celestialdelights.info/ms/leonids2003b.html

But remember - the Leonids are not just a producer of in-
frequent meteor storms. They are also a more "traditional"
annual Major Meteor Shower - producing reliable displays
of 10 or so per hour every year, decade after decade. So
will there be "a" Leonid peak - the one for the regular
old annual shower - on Monday night, 17 November? Well,
probably yes - and there may be *other* peaks, too!


If you read the full text of this month's NAMN Notes:
    http://www.namnmeteors.org/namnnotes0311.html

  "According to the International Meteor Organization's
   (IMO) 2003 Meteor Shower Calendar, the Leonids (LEO)
   will reach a maximum on November 18th at 2h 30m UT.
   For observers in eastern North America, this means
   9:30 pm EST on Monday November 17th[...] ***But wait!
   Listen carefully.*** Leonids can provide surprises.
   What predictions have the other experts come up with?

  "For starters, note that the traditional Leonid peak,
   as just mentioned, is listed on the website of Peter
   Jenniskens and the Leonid MAC Team at
     http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
   as November 18, 10h UT, plus or minus 2 hours, but
   a few days wide - with ZHR rates of only about 13
   meteors per hour. Not everybody agrees on times or
   rates when it comes to meteor showers.

  "In addition to the main Leonid activity, the ex-
   perts have been studying specific filaments or
   trails of debris..."


If you go to our Website, what follows the above quote
is a dizzying array of conflicting and uncertain pred-
ictions! Sounds like science to me... :)

In fact, according to some sources, the strongest dis-
play from the Leonids this year may already have hap-
pened yesterday, before the annual Leonid shower had
even officially begun! And was that outburst actually
observed, as predicted, in Asia and the Pacific? Well,
probably... But only further analysis can confirm that.
And so goes science.


And that's ultimately the message from our old friend
the Leonids: Humanity is NOT YET SURE what they will
produce, and when. To find out, your best bet will be
to WATCH them - whenever and however you can - so long
as the radiant is up... And remember, if you record
the meteors you see - and estimate a limiting magni-
tude at least once, even just to within a half of a
magnitude or so - you may end up CONTRIBUTING TO that
science which I keep talking about... :-)



If I had to pick only one night to try observing the
Leonids all night long, which would it be? Well, I
guess I'd pick Wednesday night the 19th - with the
understanding, that I might miss out on the best of
the Leonids, by not observing Monday night the 17th!


Either way, clear skies for the Leonids everyone,

Lew Gramer


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