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(meteorobs) Ursids a bust?



I am responding to Kim Youmans' summary of his last Ursid observation.  I 
agree that the Ursid rate was a disappointment, especially when compared to 
the Geminids'.  It is upsetting to put as much effort into a campaign as Kim 
did and not see many meteors.

However, I hope that observers will put the 2003 Ursids in the following 
context.  Although we did not see an outburst in the US, data was obtained 
about the Ursids, at least for the solar longitudes that were monitored.  If 
we did not make the effort to watch, we would not be able to make any 
statement about Ursid rates.  Rather than being a "bust," I believe our 
collective efforts were a success.  Further, it is important that observers 
not get so discouraged about the Ursids that all monitoring will stop.

The reason to continue yearly Ursid watches is that Comet 8P Tuttle is due 
to return to perihelion in 2008.  (See Gary Kronk's Comet and Meteor Shower 
site.)  If observations continue for the next five years, there will be some 
data about the Ursid meteor flux during an entire orbital cycle(13.5 years). 
  This would be a first for the Ursids.  Knowing that we are close to 
obtaining this goal may help us persevere in spite of low rates.  Certainly 
no one is sure when the next Ursid visual outburst will occur.  It is 
possible that rates will be low, like they were from the east coast of the 
US, in the next five years.  However, there might be some pleasant 
surprises.  The last time there was a rate enhancement was in 1993.  I saw 
16 Ursids during a three-hour watch, which included some zero-magnitude and 
one minus-two magnitude Ursids.  If memory serves me well, I believe Bob 
Lunsford saw an even better rate with a minus-eight magnitude Ursid that 
same morning, only three time zones to the west of my site.  So, I emphasize 
that we don't know what data we'll get until we look. And, looking each year 
is important.

In 2003, our success was in obtaining data for another Ursid maximum.  The 
low rates we saw were the data.  We didn't get "busted."  I hope observers 
will try again next year!

Best wishes,

Rich Taibi

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