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(meteorobs) Request for Assistance
Hi Everybody,
I have been asked to forward the following request for our
assistance/comments on the fact that TWA flight 800 crashed on the evening
of Wednesday, July 17, 1996, due to being struck by fragments of a fireball
that was witnessed nearby. For those on the list not familiar with the
story, this received incredible coverage by the U.S. national news agencies
since the plane was carrying 212 passengers and 17 crew members. It exploded
and crashed into the Atlantic Ocean shortly after taking off from New York
City en route to Paris. There were no survivors and as far as I know, the
cause has still not been determined.
Mark Davis
MeteorObs@charlestondot net
------------------------
>Return-path: <mike@cintosdot com>
>Date: Wed, 18 Sep 1996 03:59:01 -0400
>From: Michael Davias <mike@cintosdot com>
>Subject: Request for Assistance
>X-Sender: mail10640@alterdial.uudot net
>To: MeteorObs@Charlestondot net
>
>Gentlemen:
>
>I am circulating this theory in an attempt to validate my thought process
>and (amateur) science.
>If you feel motivated to supply me some feedback, please feel free to
>contact me by return email or at (H) 203.783.9854 or (W) 212.564.6866.
>Thank you for your time and bandwidth.
>
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>TWA Flight 800 Discussion - Meteorites As Cause of Crash
>
>Draft 9/17/96
>
>Author: Michael E. Davias (mike@cintosdot com)
>
> INTRODUCTION
>
>"On the evening of Wednesday, July 17, 1996, TWA Flight 800, carrying 212
>passengers and 17 crew members, exploded and crashed into the Atlantic
>Ocean off the coast of Long Island shortly after taking off from New York
>City's John F. Kennedy International Airport en route to Paris. There were
>no survivors, and at this time the cause of the crash has not been
>determined." ---- FBI
>
>I am a private citizen interested in the facts of this tragedy. The lack
>of a firm resolution as to the cause of this event is troublesome to a
>great many. I ask that the reader keep an open mind and try to review
>along with me several aspects of the tragedy that seem to have become
>"Common Knowledge". OK?
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF APPROACH
>
>This paper will explore the possibility that a celestial event (a meteor),
>and its after-effects, created a monumental human tradegey. Few people
>totally reject a meteor theory; the problem is in the probability! I hope
>to show a significant increase in the probability of just such an incident
>given the specific set of circumstances existent in the vicinity of TWA
>Flight 800 during its crisis.
>
>I will attempt to prove that the trail of light, fireball and sounds noted
>by observers DID NOT come from an explosion onboard TWA 800, but rather as
>the natural "signature" of a fireball meteor tens of miles above the plane.
>I understand this is a leap of faith for the reader, as we have been
>reading for 2 months that the plane exploded into a massive fireball.
>
>Finally, I will show how TWA 800 flew into a maelstrom of meteorites. While
>a solitary meteorite striking the plane is far-fetched, consider that a
>large meteor could, and likely did, explode at the point of greatest
>brightness at an altitude of 5 to 10 miles; the fragments scatter like
>buckshot in a narrow cone causing hundreds of meteorites to cross the
>flight path at supersonic speeds.
>
>
> DISPROVING THE JET FUEL FIREBALL THEORY
>
>120 milliseconds after the initial event the fight data recorders failed.
>Radar continued to track the flight for 20 to 40 seconds under significant
>forward propulsion as it descended from 13,700 feet to 8000 feet. This
>required the engines, wings and primary fuselage to be substantially intact
>immediately after the initial event.
>
>If a missile or on-board explosive had breached the airplane's wing fuel
>tanks at 13,700 feet (required to cause a massive explosion at that
>altitude) the plane would have plummeted. It is commonly believed that the
>airframe failed at 8000 feet, creating the fireball at that point. This
>would again require the massive disintegration of the wing fuel tanks.
>
>Two points here: First the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 produced no
>fireball and previous airliner bombings have likewise produced no fireball;
>Second, at 8000 feet the fireball would have been too low on the horizon
>(or below it) for a number of reported observers.
>
>As the evidence is brought up from the Atlantic, there seems to be poor
>evidence of a major in-air fire, much less a cataclysmic explosion.
>Michael Barr, director of aviation safety programs at the University of
>Southern California, said recently that "You have to have instant ignition
>into a large fuel source. The way those fuel tanks are sealed, it just
>doesn't happen." An article in "USA Today" of 9/11/96 (attached) describes
>why there is so much disbelief among experts that the explosion could have
>occurred, although they continue follow the belief it did.
>
>Observers report the arrival of a sequence of loud booms shortly after the
>fireball sighting. These are thought to be further evidence of the blast.
>Analysis of the energy necessary to produce such volley of large blasts at
>a distance of over 15 miles yielded a requirement for 17,000 lbs of TNT!
>
>Yet the "Common Knowledge" that TWA was consumed in a massive fireball
>continues. Let us stop blind acceptance henceforth. The facts suggest
>that TWA Flight 800 traversed the distance from initial event to the
>Atlantic with little visual or audio fanfare.
>
>Questions? Well, here's one: What _was_ seen that evening in the sky?
>
>
> PROVING EXISTENCE OF A FIREBALL METEOR
>
>The term "fireball" meteor is used to describe a specific type of celestial
>event caused by entry into the atmosphere of a meteroide of moderate size
>(30 to 300+ feet in diameter). Furthermore, the event requires that the
>meteroide strike the atmosphere at a shallow angle. If the angle is too
>steep, the object would vaporize high up in the atmosphere (60 miles) and
>produce only a giant white flash across the sky. Too low of an angle, and
>it literally skips back out into space, as seen in Alaska recently.
>
>Given an appropriate trajectory for its mass, the meteoroid, over the
>course of several seconds, grows from a dim speck of light to a bright
>white "star" to a flaming fireball. As the meteor reaches a lower altitude
>(5 to 15 miles) it detonates due to the massive frictional forces,
>transforming itself into a fillisade of hundreds of meteorites moving at 5
>miles per second.
>
>On the evening of July 17th, a fireball meteor plummeted towards Long
>Island from the south. Its signature was clearly seen by many observers
>from around the tri-state region. Perhaps the most descriptive report was
>made by an Air Nationa Guard pilot. "He reported seeing a 'streak of
>light' on the same trajectory as a shooting star... He said the orange-red
>streak was descending across the sky and, as he followed it, eventually
>erupted into the large fireball described by other witnesses." (ref:
><http://wow.news daydot com/jet/jemiss01.ht>) His vantage point was 11 miles
>southwest of TWA 800 at 3000 feet. He states the trajectory was at 30
>degrees above his horizion.
>
>"When the words failed him, Mike Bednar of Lake Ronkonkoma drew pictures,
>sketching out what was in his mind's eye regarding the last moments of TWA
>Flight 800. Bednar was surfing off Smith Point Park with two friends on
>Wednesday evening when the speck of light arcing gently to earth caught his
>eye. He watched the glint grow to a ball of flame and fall toward the
>ocean."
>(ref <http://wow.news daydot com/jet/jet0wit.ht>)
>
>Most troublesome to investigators are the reports from observers that the
>light arched upwards before growing orange/red and falling back towards the
>Atlantic. There is a scientific explanation for this, given an observer at
>sea level within 15 to 20 miles north of the end of meteor's tract, and
>given a clear view of the horizon from the Long Island shore. The motion of
>the meteor as it began to brighten at 100 miles up and 400 miles south
>would look to be "climbing" as it approached. If it had not been
>re-entering the atmosphere, it would have continued "climbing" overhead and
>then "drop" to the northern horizon (as a satellite does). As it slows due
>to friction, however, it does loose altitude, and the viewer's perspective
>becomes normalized. Altogether, this creates the illusion of a continuous
>arc from sea level up to (perhaps) 30 degrees, where it then begins to
>visually descend as a fireball (remember though, it is still 20 to 40 miles
>up at that point). The meteor eventually reach peak brightness 5 to 10
>miles above the earth and rapidly dissipates as it fractures and slows to
>below re-entry speeds.
>
>A picture is available at <http://wwwdot deepseekerdot com/jo/closeup2.jpg> which
>shows this fireball as a tight, spherical object against the still
>partially-sunlit evening sky.
>
>When we left the fillisade of meteorites, they were traveling at 5 miles
>per second. They will continue downward towards the earth, rapidly loosing
>speed. The larger pieces will produce vary loud sonic booms as they rush
>downward. These sonic booms are recognized indicators of fireball meteors.
>In an earlier event (November 17/18, 1995) an observer from had the fortune
>to record a rare sonic boom of a bright fireball. Four minutes after the
>visual event two loud detonations were heard.
>(Ref <http://www.tu-chemnitzdot de/~smo/imo/video/vdemo5.html> )
>
>Thus, the observed visual and audio events of July 17th were caused by a
>"classic" fireball meteor. Need more proof (actually I need it too)? Let's
>get the FBI to review their notes of interviews with observers; provide the
>specifics of azimuth, declination, direction, length of sighting, etc, to
>the meteor-tracking folks. Also, let's see if we can find sightings from
>others along the east coast that evening.
>
>
> NEW STATISTICAL PROBABILITIES
>
>Still with me? The cosmos has at this point provided us with a scenario
>which includes hundreds of 5 to 500 pound meteorites hurtling downwards,
>now traveling at one mile per second, dispersed in a cone of (perhaps)
>3,000 feet in diameter as it passes through 15,000 feet.
>
>Directly below lies a heavily traveled air corridor leaving JFK. In the
>early evening one can expect a train of 747s, Airbus 300s and DC10s strung
>60 seconds apart as they head for Europe. Anyone care to re-evaluate the
>odds?
>
> HIGH VELOCITY PROJECTILE IMPACT DAMAGE
>
>As of this date the NTSB and the FBI have shared with us some sobering
>facts. On the right side of the aircraft (this is the side facing South,
>remember) the three seats in row 25 and the 3 seats in row 26 are glaringly
>missing from the re-construction. The 3 seats from row 27 were recovered
>last week and exhibited ``nothing remarkable''.
>
>As for the seats in row 23, Lloyd Manley reports "Fist sized holes in the
>backs of seats 23J and 23K (which) are indicative of high velocity, massive
>shrapnel damage" (Ref <http://wwwdot deepseekerdot com/jo/twa8002.html> )
>
>Thus, Seats 23J and 23K were hit by small meteorites, and the rows just
>behind were pulverized by a much bigger piece. The traversal of the
>meteorites through the airframe was likely hypersonic, "punching" clean
>through and leaving row 27 unscathed. The debris from this are is likely to
>be found directly below and to the north of the position of TWA 800 when
>the recorders went silent. Silent, after recording 120 milisec of
>approaching shock waves, and -significantly- no rapid
>increase-then-decrease in cabin pressure expected if there had been an
>interior bombing. The sensors are probably not quick enough to note the
>meteoritic transits.
>
>I will refrain from proposing a hypothetical scenario for the events as
>they continued unfolding at 13,700 feet. I only know the story has a very
>tragic ending.
>
> SUMMARY
>
>TWA Flight met its tragic end due to meteorite impacts. The hard facts are
>not yet in our hands. I fear if a search is not made soon to document the
>meteorite field in the shallow waters off of Long Island, much of the
>evidence, including fragments of the missing seats and adjacent fuselage,
>will never be found. The Bruderheim fall in Canada produced over 700
>fragments weighing up to to 31 kg. They were recovered from an area over a
>mile in diameter. see
><http://www_dsa.uqac.uquebecdot ca/Divers/Higgins/meteorit.htm>
>
>I call again for a renewed look at the eye-witnesses. Have them
>interviewed by professionals who can calculate the trajectories from their
>valuable sightings. Check the cockpit voice recorder tape for sonic shock
>evidence, check the data for acoustic signature of VLF emission? re:
><http://www_dsa.uqac.uquebecdot ca/Divers/Higgins/son-e.htm >. Pore over the
>exterior of the aricraft debris on the upper surfaces of the wings and the
>right/upper fuselage looking for smaller meteorite impacts.
>
>When re-constructed, the physical presence of a cleanly-punched hole
>through the 747 will be powerfull evidence alone.
>
>Attached is a text document with notes/references.
>
>
>
>Attachment Converted: C:\NETSCAPE\DOWNLOAD\RefNotes.txt
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>Michael E. Davias mike@cintosdot com 203.783.9854
>
> It is more important to make the decision right
> than to make the right decision!
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