[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

Re[2]: (meteorobs) meteors



---------------------------------- Forwarded ----------------------------------
From: Joseph Assmus at PACE-POST
Date: 11/5/96 9:47AM
To: pued@msndot com at @UCSD
Subject: Re[2]: (meteorobs) meteors
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     11//5/96 @ 11:38am, you write:  >Thanks, Joseph.  But can't sporadics
                                       intersect the radiant?

     Sure they can, and do!  I guess it partly comes down to statistical
  probabilty.  This is the caution in doing visual obs during major
  and minor meteor showers.  Say you're watching the QUAs one night in early
  Jan.  IMO lists a ZHR=120.  If sporadics have a general ZHR ~6 or 7,
  probabilty theory dictates that, given the zillions of meteors you'll see
  that night, if a particualr meteor satisfies all the IMO crtieria for shower
  association, than it is likely a QUA and not a SPO.  However, if you're
  watching, say, the July Pegasids (ZHR ~3) or the S. Iota Aquarids (ZHR ~2),
  you must be VERY careful in making a shower association.  During minor
  shower observations, an observer's final tally has a higher probabilty of
  containing SPORADIC POLLUTION.

     AN EXAMPLE:  If your hourly total for QUA wrongly contains 2 SPOs out of,
  say, 73 QUAs, that's only 2.7% error rate (may be accepatble).  But, if your
  SIA hourly count total is, say 3, and it mistakenly contains 2 SPOs, then
  you get 67% error rate (clearly unaccepable).


     Joseph










>-- Saved internet headers (useful for debugging)
>Received: from gatekeeper-1.latradedot com by mail.ucsddot edu; id IAA13568 sendmail
>Received: by gatekeeper-1.latradedot com (5.65/DEC-Ultrix/4.3) id AA25820; Tue, 5
>Received: by tu
>Received: from gatekeep
>Receive
>Received: from
>Date: Tue, 5 Nov 96 11:38:23 UT
>From: "Thomas Wojack" <pued@msndot com>
>Message-Id: <UPMAIL07.19961105163911083
>To: meteorobs@l
>Subject: RE: (meteorobs) meteors
>Sender: owner-meteorobs@latradedot com
>Precedence: bulk
>Reply-To: meteorobs@latradedot com