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(meteorobs) Draconid storm possibilities
Early Last month I asked Joe Rao about his opionion on the possibility of the
Draconids producing Storm activity in 1998. Below is his reply that I thought
others might like to read as well.
George Z.
--------
<< Subj: Re: Draconids
Date: 96-10-15 00:49:16 EDT
From: Skywayinc
To: GeoZay
George -- I am forwarding this message to Kevin and also to John Bortle,
both of whom might find this of some interest.
Regarding the Draconid shower and its parent comet, P/Giacobini-Zinner, it
is due to arrive at perihelion on 1998 November 21 at a distance of 1.034 AU.
Unfortunately, Earth arrives at the nodal crossing point 44 days BEFORE the
comet and the distance between the orbit of the comet and the Earth are
actually slightly larger than in the last "favorable" year of 1985. In '85,
the Japanese had a ZHR that briefly reached above 200, but we followed the
comet to the node. . . in 1998, we get to the node before the comet. That is
not a very good sign. I don't think we are going to have a display bettering
the 200 seen in 1985 and, more likely, it probably will be less.
I did some calculations and the next "reasonably good" chance of a
significant Draconid display should come in the year 2018, when the comet
arrives at perihelion on September 10. We will reach the node only 22 days
AFTER the comet and the distance between our orbit and the comet will be
about one-half that of the 1985 apparition. "May'be" a meteor storm will
transpire. . . more likely, at least, another very strong (several hundred
per hour?) display.
Unfortunately, P/Giacobini-Zinner will have a close encounter with Jupiter
in February 2029, widening the gap between us and the comet and probably
precluding anymore significant Draconid activity for some years thereafter.<<
Joe Rao
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