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(meteorobs) Probabilities of REALLY BIG fireballs...
At 08:30 PM 2/9/98 +0000, Andrew <andrew@zpokdot demon.codot uk> wrote:
>1. This *must* be a FAQ ... [is there a meterobs FAQ ?] ...
> is there anyone out there with a background in statistics who
> would care to estimate the chances of a significant impact on the
> Earth within, say, the next five hundred years ?
Surprisingly, Andrew, this question ISN'T frequently asked here on
meteorobs... We tend to focus in this group on the benign "lights in the
sky" (i.e., meteors) resulting from the entry of SMALL objects in earth's
atmosphere, as opposed to the results of REALLY BIG objects encountering
earth. :)
But since we're talking about this thread right now, yours is certainly a
question that deserves an answer. So how about it: is there anyone up on
the latest NEO statistics, who can tell us the likelihood of a kilometer+
sized dense-material impact within the next few centuries? Can someone
hazard a guess as to whether we really know the answer??
I've heard that perhaps only 5% of the probable NEOs (Near Earth Objects)
have been discovered so far - a pretty small sampling... So maybe the real
answer is that we need to find out the answer! :)
(And coincidentally, we meteor observers' data will ultimately help!)
Clear skies and many meteors,
Lew Gramer
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