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(meteorobs) Aurora Watch/added bonus !!
If we are lucky we'll have a nice background for our meteors !!!
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 05:10 UTC, 23 AUGUST
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ACTIVATION: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 26 AUGUST
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 25 AUGUST (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 23 - 26 AUGUST
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 20, 25, 15 (23 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO
HIGH
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE (OPTIMAL DARK SKY CONDITIONS)
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO
NORTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE TO
SOUTHERN MAINE.
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN
EUROPE INCLUDING MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND, TO
NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF NEW ZEALAND AND
POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT
PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
The arrival of several solar disturbances and
the observation of increasingly favorable solar wind conditions for
producing periods of increased auroral activity, as well as the possible
arrival of a slightly more vigorous disturbance late on 24 August or on
25 August in association with yesterday's major class M9.0/2B flare from
active solar Region 8307, are the primary reasons for issuing this
watch.
Auroral activity is expected to be sporadically
moderately active over the next 48 hours. Late on 24 August or early on
25 August, the possible arrival of the flare associated coronal mass
ejection disturbance may result in slightly intensified levels of
auroral activity for another 24 hours. Then, barring further major solar
outbursts (see below), activity should begin subsiding toward quieter
levels.
Active solar region 8307 is a fairly complex
sunspot region that has a demonstrated capacity for producing major
energetic X-class solar flares with supposedly large mass ejections.
This region is now rotating into a more favorable position on the Sun
that places the Earth more directly in the trajectory of possible mass
ejections from that region. As a result, there is a high probability
that should an additional major solar flare and coronal mass ejection
occur, that the Earth might see potentially significant increases in
auroral activity. Region 8307 has, over the last 24 hours, shown some
increased growth and development, particularly in an area where magnetic
complexity is already high. For these (and other) reasons, we expect
this region to spawn another major M or X class solar flare with an
accompanying high-velocity coronal mass ejection over the next 48 to 72
hours. In response to such an event, we may upgrade this middle latitude
auroral activity watch to a warning.
This watch will remain valid until 19:00 UTC on
26 August. It will then be updated or allowed to expire.
For real-time notifications of possible
enhancements in auroral activity, obtain the Solar Warning And Real-time
Monitoring (SWARM) software. Users of the SWARM software should pay
close attention to the realtime ACE spacecraft Bz data plots, which show
the north/south orientation of the magnetic fields in the disturbance.
Should the Bz trace drop below the zero level, expect auroral activity
to become slightly more active. Should the Bz trace drop below -10 nT
and remain there for an hour or more, expect auroral activity to become
substantially more active.
PLEASE SUBMIT ANY OBSERVATIONS YOU MAKE OF
AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.ulethdot ca/solar/www/auroras.html
** End of Watch **
end
Clear Skies,
Bob
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~Carlton S. Perkins Observatory~
41.95 N - 70.68 W
http://www.inergy.com/observatory/welcome.html
~Tonights Sky~
http://www.earthsky.com/Features/Skywatching/
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