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Re: (meteorobs) Dashed Leonid Hopes
In a message dated 5/2/99 4:16:10 PM Eastern Daylight Time, ksyo@pinelanddot net
writes:
<< "The bad news is that their mapping shows that, contrary to many
astronomers' hopes, there will be no spectacular meteor storm this coming
November,
just a slightly-stronger than usual Leonid shower."
Should I really start boo-hooing, or just wait for (hopefully) Joe's next S&T
article for more insight?? >>
Kim -- I don't know who might have written the Boston Globe article that you
refer to, but there certainly is a better chance at a meteor storm this year
(1999) as opposed to last year. Historically, many of the great meteor
storms have occurred when the Earth is roughly 400 to 800 days behind the
parent comet (55P/Tempel-Tuttle). As we will be trailing the comet by 623
days in 1999 indicates that if, for nothing else, history is on our side for
a possible big display.
Also . . . in an independent study, I moved forward (integrated) the same
concentration of particles that gave rise to the 1966 storm, and found that
they will miss Earth by only 0.0026 AU in November 1999. In addition, David
Asher of Armagh Observatory has recently published a paper which demonstrates
that the geometrical circumstances for the 1999 Leonids compare rather
favorably with the 1833 Leonids and the 1966 Leonids. While it is true that
nothing is truly certain in regards to a meteor shower prediction, I think
that there is a good chance that we'll have a most interesting display. In
fact, out of most of the Leonid predictions floating out there, the only
really negative one is that of Iwan P. Williams and Zidian Wu of Great
Britain, who state that " . . . few Leonids will be seen in 1999."
I guess we'll all know for sure in about 6 1/2 months!
-- joe rao
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