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Re: (meteorobs) NASA News articles
Joe,
The historical analyses you have done are very important, but the
derivation of predictions from these is limited without some overall
theoretical basis. Ultimately, when we do the dust trail calculations
back before 1799, we will get a better handle on the geometrical
circumstances that result in the biggest storms. It is necessary to
relate the storms to individual dust trails (their age, ejection velocity
for the encountered portion, distance and orientation of encounter from
the trail centre) rather than the comet's orbit (distance from orbit and
time from perihelion). An analysis from the latter point of view
(distance from comet orbit and time from perihelion) at best only gives a
moderate correlation with storms, or if you want, a strong correlation if
you reject the years in which nothing much happens. The dust trails have
a very high correlation (probably 1) with storms, and is so far only
limited by the historical record. Thus, a better historical record is
very important in testing the theory, although my feeling is that it is
already proven beyond doubt by Reznikov for the Draconids (Giacobinids)
and by Kondrat'eva, Murav'eva and Reznikov and Asher and I for the
Leonids.
Cheers, Rob
Robert H. McNaught
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au
On Sat, 26 Jun 1999 Skywayinc@aol.com wrote:
> In a message dated 6/26/99 3:48:05 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
> rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au writes:
>
> << Thus, I really do suspect there is a basis to what you describe, but I
> believe it is a consequence of probabilities and that a major storm would
> occur in this exclusion zone if the Earth/dust trail geometry is correct. >>
>
> Rob -- I understand what you are suggesting . . . which is why I found your
> article in WGN so interesting! Based on your dynamical predictions, you and
> David are suggesting that we will encounter the "absolute" Leonid peak in
> 2001 . . . whereas from my mainly "historical" viewpoint, 1999 would be the
> year that the Leonids will reach their primary maximum. Although I believe
> both your m.s. and mine probably arrived on Marc Gyssens desk at just about
> the same time, I was happy that he will be publishing each article
> separately. It will give readers an opportunity to "digest" what each of us
> have written and then, when all is said and done we can do nothing more than
> leave it up to the Leonids to determine who is correct!
>
> -- joe rao
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