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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid annual and outburst components

In a message dated 8/27/99 10:30:44 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au writes:

<< Whilst the time from the nodal
 passage of the comet is involved, it is more complicated that Joe
 suggests . . . Sadly, the 1999 encounter is through the edge of the
 dust trail and not just a few Earth radii from its center as in 1966.
 Overall, the rates in 1999 will probably only be around 1% of 1966 :(
  >>

    I have said quite a few times in recent weeks that this upcoming (1999) 
Leonid display will be most interesting to observe if, for nothing else, to 
see which prediction concerning this shower's overall duration/intensity 
verifies.  To be sure, there are many differing predictions out there that 
have been made.  In Rob's case, he has concentrated chiefly on a dynamical 
approach, mixed with a historical perspective.  From my own point of view I 
have looked at things more from an historical standpoint, with a little 
dynamics thrown in.  As Rob has noted above, his take on this year's Leonids 
is for a rate of only 1% of the oft-quoted 1966 rate of 150,000/hour.  In 
contrast, as I take note in the upcoming November issue of Sky & Telescope, 
my own thoughts are that a storm of tens of thousands of Leonids per hour 
might be possible (rates that Rob and David Asher believe will not come for 
another few more years).

    As I said, it will certainly be most interesting to see what happens on 
the night of November 17-18.  We have all placed our cards on the table . . . 
it is now up to the Leonids themselves to see who holds the winning hand. 

-- joe rao

"If I were to read, much less answer all the attacks made on me,
this shop might as well be closed.
I try to do the very best I can, 
and I will continue doing so until the very end.
If the end brings me out all right, what was said against me
wont amount to anything.
If the end brings me out wrong, then all the angels swearing I was right
would make no difference."

                                                                              
      -- Abraham Lincoln 
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