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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid storm predictions
In a message dated 11/9/99 3:52:48 AM Eastern Standard Time,
rmn@aaocbn.aaodot gov.au writes:
<< In the next paragraph, Joe writes that we predict maximum rates
of around 1000-1500 for 2000. The dust trails in 2000 are hard to predict
due to then lying in a region of our parameter space for which there is no
historical data. Using some assumptions about the geometry of the dust
trails, we came up with a range of 100-5000 for these trails. However, as
we note in section 7 of our WGN article, the geometry that gives these
higher rates, would also predict a major storm occurred in 1801. This is
highly unlikely. >>
Rob -- Unfortunately, in the many press releases that have been issued about
the Leonids concerning your predictions about future Leonid activity
(including I think one even from from Armagh Observatory?) listed only the
predicted hourly rates, sans any "disclaimers." Most people only wish to
read the raw numbers; they'll likely see the 5000 . . . not the 100! If
there was considerable uncertainty about the 2000 rates, then it might have
been better to simply put a "?" rather than quote a specific rate.
-- joe rao
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