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(meteorobs) Re: 2000 HD74 plus more

-- joe rao Writes:
>"Astronomers Caught Off-Guard by New Meteor Display!"  Sometimes, in  
>judging what is the right call to make ("promote or keep mum") you >  can 
>get caught between a rock and a hard place over such
>  circumstances

From one Joe to the Next,
Well said Joe.  In other words, we are caught in a moral and practical 
dilemma.  Damned if ya do, damned if ya don't. But arent there really TWO 
separate issues here

  1.) The impact (forgive the pun) to society in general when statements 
(i.e, predictions of events) come from the experts and are filtered through 
the mass media.  To begin with... Is it good science or bad?  Are the 
mathematics there to support such a prediciton ? And what effect does the 
"media filter have".
      The LEONIDs and all the science and science coverage are a good 
example to ask these questions.


  2.) The second issue, separate and simpler, actually, more fundamental.  
And perhaps an empirical one:
   DOES HEARING STATEMENTS REGARDING UNFOUND UNESTABLISHED YET
   HYPOTHESIZED METEOR RADIANTS BIAS SUBSEQUENT VISUAL OBSERVATIONS?

   Would there be a higher probaility that you would classify
a meteor as a shower member (loosen up the criteria for association).. even 
if done un/subconsciously?? Anyone trained in science is all to well familar 
with Experimenter Bias.. it's there no matter how fancy your statistics..  
In some fields of science there are experimental techniques by which that 
bias is minimized.. (eg. blind scoring or data collection, double-blind 
placebo control clinical trials, and on and on.
My gut reaction is A PRIORI knowledge of a hypothsized radiant introduces 
experimental bias into the data.

Es mi Dos Pesos...

Clear Skies to all,

Joseph Assmus
San Diego, CA

ps.. Any one miss GeoZay.. hed sure have a good opinion on this deep and 
profound issue ?

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