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Re: (meteorobs) The Y2K Leonids: what if it's cloudy?
At 20:17 -0400 24.10.2000, Skywayinc@aol.com wrote:
>In a message dated 10/24/2000 7:21:25 PM Eastern Daylight Time, johnk@dmv.com
>writes:
>
><< First off...you simply are not going to be able to forecast viewing
>conditions
> up and down the East Coast FIVE days in advance with enough certainty to even
> BEGIN to plan travel..2-3 days, yes. More than three...no way. >>
>
> Actually . . . after more than 22 years of forecasting, chiefly in the
>private sector, and having considerable experience in using the entire
>ensemble of computer models, I believe a surprisingly good generalization can
>be made as far out to 144 hours in advance of a particular event. At 5 to 7
>days out, I will be looking for one of three best "regions" with best weather
>prospects -- each region covering a radius of approximately 300-400 miles.
>I've had good success in the past and I hope to continue that for the Leonids!
>
>-- joe rao
My experience: Do not only rely on weather forecasts!
Last year I visited Tunisia, which seemed from Finland five days in advance
a good place to watch the show. Two days before the action, the weather
forecasts in the net told it will be cloudy.
Thus: You must have an alternative plan.
So, our group rented a car for two nights driving Tunisian roads more than
1000 km (600 miles) of which 650 km (450 miles) during the big night,
searching for clear sky. One of us has done that so many times in Finland
that he knows the weather system and where to drive next. Okay, finally we
found out that Tunisia was too small country to avoid clouds. Anyway,
during the expected maximum time, we found enough clear sky holes to
understand that the maximum is there, it's really happening. Although the
situation was difficult, we estimated the ZHR almost correctly.
Reading the list for six days now, I think I would travel to Florida
(Miami) if any, if I travel to US. I would be glad to find a good contact
there to join in some astro group to watch Leonids. Is any astro group in
Miami?
Kind regards,
-Janne Pyykko, 35 yr sportsman from Helsinki, Finland, Scandinavia, Europe
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