[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

(meteorobs) Leonid Meteor Shower weather outlook #4 (Good News?)

    This is the fourth weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display will will restrict this weather outlook to this part of 
the country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: A MAJOR CHANGE has taken place concerning the projected 
track of the anticipated weather disturbance for later in the week.  It now 
appears that low pressure will take a track well to the north and west of 
previous outlooks.  Both the European (ECMWF) forecast model, which was made 
available late Saturday night and the new MRF run early this Sunday morning, 
are now indicating that low pressure will move from near Chicago on Thursday 
evening . . . across southern Quebec to near Cape Breton Island in the 
Canadian Maritimes on Saturday morning.  This scenario brings greater hope 
for clearer weather across much of the eastern US -- especially for Friday 
night!

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: The storm, as noted above, is depicted much 
farther to the north of previous forecasts -- near Chicago -- at the start of 
Thursday evening.  It is anticipated to track to Lake Huron by Friday 
morning.  Much of the eastern seaboard will probably start off this night 
with clear to scattered clouds.  However . . . the approach of the storm and 
its attendant warm and cold fronts are likely to spread widespread cloudiness 
across the region during the course of the night.  Over the southeast, from 
western Virginia down to Alabama-Mississippi and perhaps the Florida 
Panhandle, there could be a threat of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms 
toward daybreak Friday.  Farther to the east and north, a swath of 
mid-to-high level cloudiness may race east ahead of the storm/frontal 
complex.  So for most areas, clouds will likely be on the increase -- perhaps 
even will have arrived by Leonid time (2:53 a.m. EST).

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: With a storm track from southern Quebec to 
Cape Breton Island, the associated cold front should sweep across much of the 
US east coast during Friday and offshore by Friday evening.  The frontal 
passage should be accompanied by clouds, scattered showers and even a few 
thunderstorms during Friday . . . followed by a sweep of drier, colder air 
during Friday night.  A slot of clear skies should punch north during the 
night from northern Florida on up to southern New England.  

Interior sections of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England might be 
plagued by lingering broken-to-overcast skies and scattered showers and even 
flurries . . . the result of orographics and cyclonic curvature winds setting 
off lake effect precipitation behind the departing storm system.  Because of 
these factors, it may be wise to stay near and along the coastal plain, where 
fewer clouds are likely with much less of a threat of hang-back precipitation.

Parts of central Florida could also see lingering cloudiness should the cold 
front slow down or stall.

FINAL COMMENTS:  The fact that both the ECMWF and MRF models agree on the 
above outlook adds confidence to this forecast.  By Tuesday, a third model -- 
the AVN -- will be available for the Thursday/Friday time frame.  And by 
Wednesday, the two most dependable short-term models -- the NGM and ETA -- 
should allow prospective Leonid watchers to "fine-tune" their final decisions 
as to what location(s) they intend to observe the shower.

Next update: late Monday morning. 
-- joe rao       
To UNSUBSCRIBE from the 'meteorobs' email list, use the Web form at:
http://www.tiacdot net/users/lewkaren/meteorobs/subscribe.html