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(meteorobs) Leonid Meteor Shower weather outlook #5

    This is the fifth weather outlook issued for the Leonid meteor shower, 
due to reach its peak on the nights of November 16-17 and/or 17-18.  As 
explained in the first advisory, since the eastern US is most favored to see 
this year's display will will restrict this weather outlook to this part of 
the country.  More info on this year's Leonids can be obtained at:  
http://www.msfc.nasadot gov/news or at 
                 <A HREF="http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html">
http://hometown.aol.com/theleonids/index.html</A>

GENERAL SYNOPSIS: Once again -- unfortunately -- there are differences in the 
computer guidance portrayal of what will transpire weatherwise toward the end 
of this week.  The European (ECMWF) model wants to take low pressure quickly 
east through the northern Great Lakes and well to the northeast into the 
Canadian Maritimes.  The MRF makes far more out of this system, even implying 
that it will attempt to reform & intensify somewhere off of Long Island or 
Cape Cod during Friday evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: Whatever the final scenario regarding the 
approaching storm system from the west, the overall pattern for this night 
does not look good at all for much of the US East Coast.  An approaching 
frontal complex associated with the storm should bring widespread cloud cover 
and precipitation to much of the eastern seaboard.  Only far to the north 
(Gulf of Maine) or far to the south (southern Florida) hold any possibility 
of clear or scattered clouds on this first Leonid night.  

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING:  Which computer model will be right?  If the 
ECMWF is correct, a cold front will rapidly sweep through the east coast and 
out to sea, bringing showers with it during the day and clearing skies for 
most locales during Friday evening.  If the MRF is correct, however, with low 
pressure redeveloping off the northeast US coast, any clearing would be 
delayed or would not occur at all for the northeast.  Best bet for clearing 
skies in this case, would be in a corridor from central Florida, north to 
Virginia.  

Tomorrow, we will be able to add the AVN model into the forecast mix.  In 
comparing the today's AVN positions for Wednesday evening versus what the 
ECMWF and MRF are currently projecting for that time interval, it appears 
that the AVN would side more with the MRF, suggesting the more pessimistic 
pattern . . . at least for the northeast.

Next outlook: late Tuesday morning.
-- joe rao
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