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Re: (meteorobs) Taurids vs. Leonids
Mike Linnolt wrote:
> Rainer, Even after I adjust for the better LM, the Sporadic rate is
> still significantly higher. Using r=2.5 for SPO, the correction factor
> for HR at mag 6.6 vs. 6.1 is 2.5^0.5 = 1.58. So, this adjusts the
> observed rate of 2 at mag 6.1 up to 2*1.58 = 3.16 which is still far
> below what I observed the prior interval under the mag 6.6.
>
> I am still puzzled by the reason for the enhancement.
Let's write down the actual corected sporadic rates.
r=2.5 r=3.0
----------------------
11.1 +-5.5 10.9 +-5.4
12.8 +-4.8 12.5 +-4.7
5.8 +-4.1 6.2 +-4.4
----------------------
Error margins denote the 65% confidence interval of the rate
(more precisely the expectation value of the rate) as obtained
by HR/sqrt(n) for samples of independent events such as meteors
(in practically every case).
The numbers tell that the rate of the second periods could
also have been quite likely 12.8-4.8=8.0, and that of the last
period, 5.8+4.1=9.9. The trend is reversed! It seems to remains
impossible to distinguish a natural fluctuation of a given
sporadic rate from something to be puzzled about.
Best wishes, Rainer
--
Rainer Arlt -- Astrophysikalisches Institut Potsdam -- www.aipdot de
Visual Commission - International Meteor Organization -- www.imodot net
rarlt@aipdot de -- phone: +49-331-7499-533 -- fax: +49-331-7499-526
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