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(meteorobs) Jenniskens and Asher abstracts (Meteoroids 2001)
Leonid Storm Research in the Near Future
P. Jenniskens (SETI Institute, at NASA Ames Research Center)
Recent observations and dynamical models show that the biggest Leonid storms
in this season are still to come. In November of 2001 and 2002, Zenith
Hourly Rates are predicted to increase to levels above the storm of 1999.
And the next storm is not until 2099. Results from the 1999 Leonid storm
research were published, recently, in special issues of Earth, Moon and
Planets, Meteoritics & Planetary Science, and Geophysical Research Letters.
In this presentation, I will summarize some results from key areas of Leonid
storm and meteor outburst research to date, elaborate on how those results
further other research fields, and discuss in what areas future research
might make rapid progress. PSA-13
Orbital Perturbations on Dust Trails: Predicting Meteor Storms
David Asher (Armagh Observatory, UK, and Bisei Spaceguard Center, Japan)
Although the chaotic nature of planet-crossing orbits limits the timescale
over which their dynamical evolution can be reliably calculated, a
sufficiently accurate initial orbit can at least be followed for some time
(e.g., centuries) into the future. When debris is released from a comet
during a given return to perihelion, the first stage of its evolution is to
stretch gradually into a long, dense, narrow trail of meteoroids and dust.
Perturbations on particles in the trail are a function of position along the
trail, and position along the trail depends almost entirely on orbital
period, particles of shorter/longer period being ahead/behind. Therefore
perturbations at all points along the trail, and their consequent effect on
the trail's location, can be reliably calculated until chaotic behaviour
sets in (e.g., for some centuries). Since meteor storms occur when the Earth
passes near the centre of a trail, where the particle density is very high,
this has allowed storms and outbursts to be predicted with great accuracy in
the Leonids and many other streams. 2.1
http://www.irf.se/Meteoroids2001/
Manuel Solano Ruiz
SOMYCE Secretary
msolanor@teleline.es
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