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RE: (meteorobs) What I think I know (and don't know) ...
I can't point any specific observation from the past. I have however one
interesting prediction for the year 2003. The particles lag the parent comet
by about 38 years!
The particles have made 14 revolutions, the comet more than 15. The
particles have been in the 1:3 mean motion resonance (orbital period three
times that of Jupiter). This is a "strong" resonance. In 2003 the particles
are very efficiently "focused" by the gravitational perturbations to have
fM>1, and this high density is not very local.
Unfortunately the miss-distance is not quite small.
(It is actually a two branch encounter, one with rE-rD about -0.003 and fM
as high as about 2 to 3, the other has rE-rD around -0.001 to 0.002 and fM
around 1. Original delta_a around 0.3. These figures ar from my memory,
especially I don't remeber well the delta_a.) I expect the maximum ZHR to be
below or about 100 (with wide error mergins (not certain that anything will
be seen)), so this is not really spectacular, but very interesting for the
study of the meteoroids behaviour. The orbital precessions in this resonance
seem to differ from those of the parent comet. So the outburst is predicted
to Nov, 13.
Esko
>from: peter.atanackov@guest.arnesdot si
>So if high dust concentrations exist relatively far from the comet, could
>high rates occur at any time (speaking for Leonids here). If I unsderstand
>right dist trails lag behind the comet with the lag being proportional to
>the time elapsed since the trail's formation. Have any unusual rates been
>observed during the 'off' years?
>Jure
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