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Re: (meteorobs) Peter Jennisken's revised Leonid forecast
> Peter: the rumors were that your latest models were predicting
> an EXTRAORDINARY rate through out North America on 17/18 Nov.
That were no rumors, that was what Jenniskens showed during his
talk in Kiruna one month ago (I have it on video tape :-).
> Was your Meteoroids talk predicting a far shorter outburst,
> with "EZHR" (effective ZHR) ~= 33,000 but only lasting a small
> fraction of an hour?
No, it was to be a fully developped peak (which, according to
Jenniskens' view of the past, would actually beat even the one
from 1966).
What's *now* on http://www-space.arc.nasadot gov/~leonid/ is yet another
significant revision of his predictions for 2001 (by my counting
the third published one since spring of 2000). Apparently his
modelling is pretty unstable, but I'm relieved to see that is is
now moving back somewhat towards the 'classic' views of
Asher/McNaught/Lyytinen.
With that, it may be safe to say that there will be one peak of
1/2 to 1 times the power of the 1999 storm at 10 UTC and another
one at 2/3 to 2 times the power of the 1999 storm at 18 UTC.
Thus three continents will be happy this time, one more than in
1999 ...
Daniel
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