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RE: (meteorobs) Leonids 2001 -- Some final thoughts

Joe,
	That's OK, in the AP piece on the Leonids "Comet Tempel-Tuttle most 
recently orbited the sun in February 1998, and since then, in the words of 
forecaster Joe Rao, the Leonids have "gone berserk" "  :-)
	Of course they also said "the tiny particles tend to burn up 15 miles from 
earth" Oh well, only a few dozen miles off. And the only mention of the 
rates was Jenniskens 4000 per hour, including "With clear skies, luck, and 
the bonus of a nearly moonless night, people in some locations could see 
twice that."   Hmmmmm, oh well, OK I'll be an optimist, too, but I wish 
they'd keep realistic expectations. Anyhow, Good Luck Joe, I'm watching the 
home front.

Wayne T Hally
NJAA

----------
From: 	Skywayinc@aol.com[SMTP:Skywayinc@aol.com]
Sent: 	Friday, November 16, 2001 12:05 AM
To: 	meteorobs@atmob.org; meteorobs@atmob.org
Subject: 	(meteorobs) Leonids 2001 -- Some final thoughts

Well . . . I've arrived at my observing site in southeast Arizona. 
 Fortunately, a strong, upper-level low pressure system is predicted to 
stay just off to my east, allowing generally clear skies for these next few 
nights.

As for Leonid activity in 2001, there was a front-page article on the 
Leonids in one of the Arizona papers this morning, with a reference to me 
as Sky & Telescope's "Leonid handicapper."  It is interesting to me that 
virtually all the news media (Paul Harvey, the AP, etc . . . ) have latched 
on to Peter Jenniskens prediction of 4200/hr. for the North American Leonid 
peak rate ("Would you like to see 70 meteors per minute?"), but have said 
little about the other (lower) forecasts.

So far as I'm concerned, I think the North American peak will end up 
somewhere in the 1000-1500/hr. range. Of course, I wouldn't mind if Dr. 
Jenniskens is correct with his 4200/hr. forecast, but I think that 
1000-1500/hr. is a more likely scenario.  In addition, with the 
7-revolution trail, I would also expect that there will be larger particles 
involved (as opposed to, say, the "fresher" 3-rev. trail experienced over 
Europe in 1999).  So, while not as rich in overall numbers as 1999, I would 
guess that there will be somewhat brighter meteors observed overall.

Well . . . I guess we'll all know the final outcome in a few days.  Clear 
skies and good luck to everyone!

-- joe rao
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end

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If you are interested in complete links on the upcoming LEONIDS, see:
http://www.meteorobs.org/storms.html
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