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Re: (meteorobs) Reentry - Japanese JERS-1? Sorry!
At 17:32 2/12/01, you wrote:
>Satobs.org predicted reentry of JERS-1 on November 27th. NASDA predicted Dec 3, it's Dec 2nd now, and thats in the ballpark.
That listing was issued on November 15 by OIG at Goddard sfc. from information
provided by US SPACECOM. Its only done every 14 days (should be every seven),
The latest information from Orbit Information Group (OIG) at Goddard
which comes from US SPACECOM . Here is an output from OIG,about current decays.
Take particular note of the times. OIG exclusively uses UT, which
is 5 hours ahead of EST , 6 hours ahead of CST,etc..
Decay Prediction Report Response
2001/12/02 07:44:51
Report time: 2001/12/02 07:44:51
Ascending Order: Predicted Decay Date
Number of Satellites: 3
Decay: Decay Time N Lat E Long RCS
CatNo Intl. Desig. Source Common Name Prepared
----- ------------ ------ ------------------------- -------------------
Decay: 2001/12/02 04:16:00 27.0 254.0 0.0000
26990 2001-053D CIS SL-12 R/B 2001/12/02 04:46:00
Decay: 2001/12/03 09:35:00 -7.9 238.2 9.0878
21867 1992-007A JPN JERS 1 2001/12/01 11:35:00
Decay: 2001/12/05 03:30:00 -0.6 33.3 23.0833
25155 1998-006D ESA ARIANE DEB (SPELDA) 2001/12/02 03:26:00
JERS 1
1 21867U 92007A 01336.04793733 .08804193 25542-5 41293-2 0 8289
2 21867 97.6099 90.2108 0010100 291.8593 68.1466 16.21515350538977
ARIANE DEB (SPELDA)
1 25155U 98006D 01335.63072379 .21450750 -16873-4 30422-2 0 2428
2 25155 6.6545 356.3475 1486275 48.1418 324.5683 12.98462043 47931
SL-12 R/B Decayed: 2001/12/02
1 26990U 01053D 01336.11317538 .01791896 78820-5 10000-4 0 28
2 26990 64.8961 15.7767 0053422 2.4025 3.3366 16.49346660 33
>It could be parts of the Proton, but I'm not quite convinced.. Look at the orbital elements of the Satellites the Proton launched and see if they had a trajectory that would pass over the US..
I have and it shows that the rocket would have been visible if it generates
it own light
31.470 106.240 2000. ElPaso 2000 10.0 10 F T T F T
*** 2001 Dec 2 Sun morning *** Times are AM UT *** 048 13 0
H M S Tim Al Azi C Dir Mag Dys F Hgt Shd Rng EW Phs R A Dec
26990 SL-12 R/B
4 16 30 .0 11 182 303 20.8 0 1 143**** 598 2.4 79 143 -47.4
4 16 44 .0 14 177 301 20.0 0 1 143**** 508 2.9 73 211 -44.4
4 16 58 .0 18 170 297 19.3 0 1 144**** 423 3.4 66 245 -39.7
4 17 11 .0 23 159 292 18.6 0 1 144**** 350 3.9 56 328 -32.3
4 17 25 .0 28 142 284 17.9 0 1 144**** 296 4.1 42 418 -20.6
4 17 39 .0 31 118 C 271 17.6 0 1 144**** 273 3.5 28 514 -4.6
4 17 53 .0 29 94 258 17.7 0 1 144**** 288 2.5 25 610 11.8
4 18 7 .0 24 75 249 18.2 0 1 144**** 337 2.1 33 7 0 24.3
4 18 21 .0 19 63 243 18.9 0 1 145**** 407 2.0 42 742 32.4
4 18 35 .0 15 55 240 19.6 0 2 145**** 490 1.9 49 816 37.2
4 18 48 .0 12 50 237 20.3 0 2 145**** 580 1.7 55 843 40.1
These predictions were produced by Mike McCants quicksat programme.
I dont expect the details above to be terribly accurate,
>Protons launch all the time and usually the reentries (of the stages) occur over the plains of Russia (see the last Space Illustrate Magazines articles on Russian Rocket Junk) , the parts that make it into orbit usually fall a few days later... I may be totally off, but then again it could be JERS or Proton.
As Ed Cannon has already pointed out , there have been other re-entries under similar circumstances.
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