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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Leonid annual and outburst components

In a message dated 8/29/99 1:40:56 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
marcolan@stad.dsldot nl writes:

<< I remember how confident we all were (including me) for the 1998 
 apparition.  >>

    Marco -- I wholeheartedy agree with you!  I am very impressed with the 
work that Rob and David have done.  If you recall, when their article in WGN 
came out a few months ago, I urged everyone to take a look at it.  I might be 
skeptical about a few points in their conclusion, but it still is a great 
read.  As I have said before . . . many have made their prediction for 1999.  
And it will soon be time for the Leonids to put on their performance.  

    In fairness, concerning the above quote by Marco, however, quite a few 
folks inquired of me last year as to why I had not made any elaborate plans 
to view the 1998 Leonids from Asia or the Far East.  My reasoning and 
explanation could be found in WGN 26-5 (October 1998).  On pages 211-213, I 
made the following observations concerning the 1998 Leonids:

    "So, where would this leave us for Leonid activity in the coming years?  
In 1998, Earth will follow 55P/Temple-Tuttle to the node by 257.3 days -- 
nearly the midpoint between the case of the modest 1965 display and the 1866 
storm.  In 1999, we will be in a position 622.5 days behind the comet and in 
a general region where, historically, storms have occurred.  So while there 
certainly is a chance that the Leonids could storm in either (or both) 1998 
and 1999, one should seriously consider the possibility that the 1998 Leonid 
may produce another modest showing with hourly rates measured only in the 
hundreds and not thousands (the actual ZHR in 1998 turned out to be 340 for 
the background and 190 for the storm component), with a large proportion of 
fireballs."

    Also in the abstract (page 192), I cited that, " . . . Earth will arrive 
at the node 257.3 days behind the comet in 1998 and 622.5 days in 1999, 
implying that heavy Leonid activity may be an 'iffy' proposition in 1998 with 
better overall odds in 1999."

    As such, unlike many others, I never really felt very confident about a 
Leonid storm in 1998.  In contrast, however, I do have very high hopes for 
the 1999 Leonids and, in fact, have even organized a tour to Lanzarote Island 
to view them.  

And yes . . . I now think we will see quite a bit more than ~1000/hr.

But hey . . . enough of all this.  November 18 is only 81 days away!

-- joe rao   
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