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Re: (meteorobs) Leonid meteor shower Weather Outlook #2
----- Original Message -----
From: "Wayne T Hally" <meteors@eclipsedot net>
To: <meteorobs@jovian.com>
Sent: Friday, November 10, 2000 12:24 PM
Subject: RE: (meteorobs) Leonid meteor shower Weather Outlook #2
> A few comments on Joe's weather outlooks.
>
> First of all, any projections 6 and 7 days in advance such as todays
> should be considered guidance at best. With the current long range
> forecasts, and the weather pattern in the US makes a transition from the
> stable pattern of the last few weeks toward a more normal November fast
> moving variable situation, it is an exceedingly difficult time to predict
> so far in the future. I'm sure Joe would agree. The situation certainly
> will be much clearer by next Monday or Tuesday.
This is the point I made earlier...dot beyond 3-4 days in November on the East
Coast of the US you will not have model guidance accurate enough to make real
decisions on travel.
One thing is, right now, the only publicly avaliable model extending beyond 7
days is the 10-day MRF...
As of Saturday, since there are several 7-day models and quite a few 6-day ones,
we'll have a lot more data to look at. However, things seem to be looking better
for the East Coast, if one extrapolates beyond 6-7 days on several of these
models (always a dangerous thing to do.)
I'll probably post my own analysis sometime Saturday :-)
John Krempasky
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