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Re: (meteorobs) predictions for Perseids 2001?
On Sun, 05 August 2001, B Yen wrote:
> At my latitutde (35 deg north) in S. California/USA, Perseus begins to
> clear the horizon around 10 pm Aug. 12. This would somewhat coincide
> nicely with 17hr UT - 8 (or 7) = 9am (or 10am) local time.
17hrs UT = 10am PDT, but note that your earthgrazer conditions occru around 10 PM (5hrs UT the next day). The maxima occur during daylight for our longitude this year.
> I need some experts (Rob McNaught, R. Lunsford, G. Zay, Casper de Tuile, et
> al) to advise me, on the whether to try pre predicted-max (on evening of
> Aug. 11) or post predicted-max (on evening of Aug. 13).
I can't say I'm an expert, but if you mean "August 11 or August 12" the obvious solution is to try both. In looking at past activity curves, it seems that the two evenings would be comparable. I don't know about population index trends. The old IMO Handbook says that post-maximum Perseids are fainter...I'm not sure whether I believe this.
> Is the 2001 Perseids expected to be anything spectacular? If not, maybe I
> just stay home (I'm actually at a conference in Los Angeles that day, so I
> would have to drive to the mountains to do photography. I'd rather be
> networking with my colleagues, for work-related stuff)
The Perseids will be the Perseids, and this year they're complicated by moonlight and poor placement of the maxima for the West Coast. Of course, last year there was the fantastic auroral sideshow despite the Full Moon. If you'd rather be working, I guess that's where you should be. You must have an extremely fascinating job...I'd rather drive to a dark site and see some meteors.
--
Wes
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