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Re: (meteorobs) re: Turkey Leonid conditions
Quoting "P. Edward Murray" <edward12@erols.com>:
> You might want to re read the June issue of S&T. The 2 researchers you
> should be paying attention to are David Asher & Robert McNaught.
Yes, and no. The Lyytinen and Van Flandern predictions also deserve attention,
because so far they have been just as correct the past two years as those of
David. Both the David/Rob and Esko/Tom models basically predict similar peak
times. The difference is that so far Esko and Tom seem to have done slightly
better at predicting visible rates (but this is a re-run of a discussion which
occurred on this mailinglist earlier following the 1999 and 2000 Leonids and I
refer to that discussion for further details). In essence, I think we all
should be aware that altough the art of predictions have matured considerably
last few years to a degree where I feel confident in their basics, it still
remain predictions. I feel confident about the predicted peak times but retain
some caution about predicted rates. Reality might be different. That's one
reason to go out and see, even if you're not located favourable with regard to
the predicted peaks. There's no reason to think that in that case the Leonids
are not interesting for you.
NB: please note that in my opinion the difference between a peak of 7000 over
China or a peak of 2000 over the US is just a luxury problem. The one is a lot
of meteors, the other one is as well. And even if you "only" get rates at a few
hundreds or even "just" Perseid level, remember that's still a fine show. So
don't despair if you are stuck in a "wrong" place this year! But of course, I
am spoiled and already have my sweet memories of rates up into the hundreds
(several times: Leonids, Perseids, alpha Monocerotids), and one into the
thousands: I have seen the 1999 storm, from Spain. I hope to add another one
coming November from the US. :-)
- Marco Langbroek
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