Just a comment about the differences that you can find about Leonids predictions : the way they are done can be VERY different. I think the important thing is to consider that, on next Nov 19th, there will be a very strong Leonid shower, and perhaps the last you can see in your whole life (so strong I mean). So just remember to observe !
Interesting thing is that, in a preliminary work,
(see : www.bdl.fr/Equipes/GAP/poster/poster.html )
we have also predicted a less intense shower from 1866 stream, in 2002
than in 2001.
This work is still going on, but we are a bit late... and we just hope to submit an article in a scientific paper in october. Anyway, I will let you know...
Jeremie
-- ************************************************************ * Jeremie VAUBAILLON * Institut de Mecanique Celeste et de Calcul * des Ephemerides (www.imcce.fr, ex bdl.fr) * 77 Avenue Denfert Rochereau * 75014 PARIS * FRANCE ************************************************************ * tel : +33 (0)1 40 51 22 66 * fax : +33 (0)1 40 51 20 58 * URL : http://www.imcce.fr/Equipes/GAP/equipeGAP-jv-GB.html ************************************************************