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Re: (meteorobs) double predictions and "the Americas"
Dear all,
Thank you very much for your explanations.
We hope to keep updating our webpage as predictions evolve.
Regards,
Alejandra
Esko.Lyytinen@MINEDU.FI wrote:
>
> Daar all,
>
> I think that what Alejandra originally meant, was that some of the entries
> were older values (ie. were not mutually consistent) and have now been
> (hopefully) updated. The table below, that Alejandra copied from the URSA
> page is up to date. There is not a marked folding with this trail. That was
> prominent with the 2001/7-rev trail and apparently produced the second
> (within the 7-rev) peak around 11UT.
>
> Now a slightly similar effect is predicted with the 7-rev trail also, with a
> weak (weaker than that of 2001) sub-peak 0.006deg ( about 8 to 9 minutes)
> earlier in solar longitude. Because of so near to the main peak, these are
> quite probably not separable, but this may mean that the highest ZHR value
> will be reached (as a combination of the peaks) some minutes before that
> given below, (even though the more general fit to this encounter is
> predicted to center around the given 04:03 UT). (Because the sub-peak is not
> well enough modeled in the main predictions, something should also be added
> to the predicted maximum ZHR, but this is so much below the total
> uncertainties, that this might be useless.)
>
> At the URSA page these are still told to be preliminary. There are now no
> plans to furher check these. So these are now expected to be the final
> predictions before the storms. I might try to better model the 'combined
> peak', given suitable time ..
>
> Esko
>
> >>>
>
> Dear Peter,
> I checked the page supporting Lyytinen's data, linked to the
> http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
>
> And the data there are the following:
>
> Table 1. Lyytinen's Team preliminary Leonid predictions 2002
>
> trail time (UT) ZHR half
> strength full width
>
> 7r (1767) 19.11.2002 at 04:03 3500 106 minutes
> 5r (1833) 19.11.2002 at 06:36 160
> 4r (1866) 19.11.2002 at 10:40 2600 122 minutes
> http://www.ursa.fi/ursa/jaostot/meteorit/leoeng02.html
>
> Alejandra
>
> Peter Jenniskens wrote:
> >
> > Dear Alejandra,
> >
> > The two entries for 1866 refer to calculations by Esko Lyytinen, who
> > found that the 1866 dust trail folded in on itself and there were in
> > fact two encounters with different sections of the trail. You can get
> > more information via the websites linked through
> > http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/1998.html
> >
> > -Peter Jenniskens
> > ......................................................................
> > ....
> >
> > Peter Jenniskens
> >
> > The SETI Institute e-mail:
> pjenniskens@mail.arc.nasadot gov
> > NASA Ames Research Center tel: (650) 604-3086
> > Mail Stop 239-4 fax: (650) 604-1088
> > Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000
> >
> > http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov
> > http://www-space.arc.nasadot gov/~leonid/
> >
> > http://leonid.arc.nasadot gov/pjenniskens.html
> > The archive and Web site for our list is at http://www.meteorobs.org
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>
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Tel:(506) 233-7701, Fax:(506) 255-2182
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