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RE: (meteorobs) MNRAS
I may have more time for astronomy left from the work I do for my
living, starting next year and I am very willing to study the
Giagobinids, given the time.
Now I know that at least E.A.Reznikov and Hartwig Luethen have studied
these. I think that I have seen Harwig's messages on this, but don't
find now that one. I find one from Sergey Shanov (to meteorobs,
2001,9,25) that has some data from Reznikov and (comments from) Hartwig.
I copy it at the very end of this (ie. after Joe's message).
Esko
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Sender: Skywayinc@aol.com [mailto:Skywayinc@aol.com]
Sent: 27. November 2002 17:19
In a message dated 11/27/02 5:15:17 AM Eastern Standard Time,
Esko.Lyytinen@MINEDU.FI writes:
<< Besides the Leonids (and Ursids and Perseids, unfortunately not
Giacobinids, because of lack of time) >>
It is unfortunate that you don't have the time to work on the
Giacobinids
dust trails Esko, because it would seem that this shower perhaps an
excellent
opportunity to bring us enhanced activity . . . possibly even a brief
meteor
storm . . . in 2018. As I had noted last week, an paper of mine that
was
published in WGN 26-5 (October 1998), indicated that in 2018 the Earth
will
follow Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner to the nodal crossing point by just
22.7
days, and the separation between the orbits of Earth and comet will be
0.017
AU. This is roughly midway between the C-E value for the Draconid storm
observed from Europe in 1933 (50 to 480 meteors per minute) and a heavy
1985
shower (ZHR ~ 600 to 800) seen from Japan.
I do not yet know of any dust-trail predictions yet made for 2018,
but
applying the old "analog method" of matching our orbit relative to that
of
21P, the Earth is due to arrive at the comet's nodal crossing point at
0h UT
on October 9, which would correspond to 20h EDT (dark sky conditions) on
October 8 along the US East Coast. Add to this that the Moon will be new
and
conditions seem ideal.
So an analysis by someone with the ability to look ahead 16 years at
Earth's interaction with any prospective dust trails in 2018 would
certainly
be most interesting.
-- joe rao
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Hello Meteorobs!
Here are reduced by abstract of the Russian papers concerning to model
operation meteoric storms.
Sergey Shanov
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THE GIACOBINI-ZINNER COMET AND GIACOBINID METEOR STREAM
By E.A.Reznikov
// Works Kazan' town astronomical observatory. 1993. P.80-101 The
evolution of the Giacobinid meteor streams was studied from 1985 to
2025. It is shown that the Giacobinid meteor shower will be observed in
1998.
Date of enc. (UT) Trail rD-rE V
1926 October 9,906 1900 +0,0055 -13,6
1926 October 9,900 1907 +0,0066 -23,6
1926 October 9,940 1913 +0,0024 -31,6
1926 October 9,969 1920 +0,0007 -63,5
1933 October 9,838 1900 -0,0001 +15,1
1933 October 9,832 1907 -0,0002 +20,2
1933 October 9,799 1913 +0,0032 +24,9
1933 October 9,782 1920 +0,0046 +36,2
1946 October 10,169 1900 -0,0001 +02,7
1946 October 10,163 1907 +0,0001 +03,2
1946 October 10,159 1913 +0,0006 +03,3
1946 October 10,156 1920 +0,0008 +03,9
1946 October 10,153 1926 +0,0010 +04,8
1946 October 10,153 1933 +0,0010 +07,1
1946 October 10,153 1940 +0,0012 +13,8
1952 October 9,513 1900 +0,0120 -26,0
1952 October 9,549 1907 +0,0087 -27,7
1952 October 9,647 1920 +0,0001 -38,5
1952 October 9,656 1926 -0,0014 -46,4
1985 Meteoric storm to explain was not possible
> Cannot explain that one either. Perhaps the 1933 or 1926 trails which
> are
highly disturbed in
the area, may show an encounter if the computation is carried out at a
higher resolution. I experienced a similar sitution with the Ursids, and
it is always difficult to explain anything if there are no real dust
trails. 1998 October 8,550 1926 -0,00053 +11,17
2012 October 8,7 1959 +0,0014 +39
> OOPS, MISSED, I did not stretch my computations thus far out in delta
> a0.
See that trail approaching the crossing point in my plot, but it then it
ends. No doubt it is a real encounter, but probably the delta a0 is
quite a bit away from what produced storms in the past. Will compute
that one in order to check the numerical result, but I am not very
optimistic.
2018 October 1953 +0,0044 +08,6
> Yes, but a big hole in the trail due to gravitational disturbances,
> the
density of particles may
be very low. This is definitely not an intersection with a well-behaved
trail at all. Don't expect a great storm from that one. In order to
check the numerical result, I have to compute that one at higher
resolution.
> - The comment Hartwig Luethen
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