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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Geminids in Jakarta, Indonesia
> From: "Robert McNaught" <rmn@murky.anudot edu.au>
> Reply-To: meteorobs@atmob.org
> Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2002 19:11:44 -0500
> To: "meteorobs (E-mail)" <meteorobs@atmob.org>
> Subject: Re: (meteorobs) Re: Geminids in Jakarta, Indonesia
>
>
> There is no basis to this. Unless a prediction has some theoretical
> justification you can't say that one prediction out of many that just
> happens to be right proves anything about that prediction. It might
> just have been an error that happened to be correct!
Rob I have to agree that was indeed very possible . But if that was a
mistake, its the kind of mistake i wish all mistakes were like.
Also to be honest the 2002 year book wasnt correct on the peak date of the
Leonids for 2002 - but neither was any other long term prediction for this
year's Leonids (that i had seen anyway).
Then we had that last minute very dramatic adjustment via the internet -
two weeks before the leonids peak, i think [ what was that all about ? ] -
to the predictions which was of course was dead on again, as i very well
know you know all about ;) ) But these long term predictions (like the
yearbook and the IMO website) are very helpful to people, like our little
group, who have to plan ahead in the year and book holidays or just the day
off work at least to go out and see any particular shower.
>
> Basically unrelated, but two comets have been discovered by observers
> pointing there telescopes where they expected to find a known comet, finding
it,
> then noting that their coordinates were wrong. Mistakes can appear to
> be correct.
I'm guessing one of those observers you mention was Sebastian Hönig only
this year with comet C/2002 O4 (Hönig) :)
I hope its not too presumptuous of me to take this opportunity to humbly
thank you and your fellow researchers ( im sure i speak for a great many )
for the fantastic work yourself and your colleagues/peers do in assessing
and predicting these shower/storm peaks and troughs )
Regards
Kearn
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