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(meteorobs) Re: [IMO-News] 2003 Leonid prediction paper
Many thanks for Rainer's efforts to publish the paper on the internet prior
to the shower.
Here, I'm just trying to give the corresponding quantitative population
index for each event predicted. I did not check the prediction as for
Perseids this year, so have no idea for predictions without Da_0 since they
are necessary for the calculation.
The calculated population indices for too old trails or strongly resonant
trails (e.g. 1533) may have some bias.
Also note that these values are for INDIVIDUAL trail only. Other structures
(e.g. so-called filament) and the background may affect it. Though the
influence for strong events is rather weak, but is fairly notable for week
ones, depending on their ZHR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Trail Model Da_0 f_M Time UT ZHR
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1499 Asher&McNaught 0.28 ~0.03 Nov 13, 13h15 -
1499 Asher&McNaught 0.26 ~0.8 Nov 13, 18h20 -
1499 Lyytinen 0.28 ~1.6 Nov 13, 16h40 half a day 100
1499 Vaubaillon Nov 13, 17h17 120
Da_0 = 0.28, r = 4.92
Da_0 = 0.26, r = 4.63
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1533 Asher&McNaught 0.30 ~0.04 Nov 19, 06h30 -
1533 Lyytinen 0.30 ~0.1 Nov 19, 08h dozen(s)
1533 Vaubaillon Nov 19, 07h28 100
r = 5.17
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1333 Asher&McNaught 0.12 ~0.02 Nov 20, 00h50 -
1333 Lyytinen ~0.02 Nov 20, 01h30 20
1333 Vaubaillon Nov 20, 01h26 15
r = 2.99
----------------------------------------------------------------------
736 Lyytinen -0.008 Nov 22, 21h 10
736 Vaubaillon Nov 22, 22h02 2
r = 1.34
----------------------------------------------------------------------
636 Vaubaillon Nov 23, 02h56 10
no Da_0 value!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1733 Lyytinen 0.11 Nov 19, 00h25 a few dozen?
r = 2.55
----------------------------------------------------------------------
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