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Re: (meteorobs) Re: Increased activity?
>The odd situation in Jordan where a hundred people saw something (what the
>heck was that about?), and reports off LA and now Rick in San Francisco,
>I'm not so sure it's business as usual. These don't sound like normal
>meteors or normal activity...
The exciting thing about meteors is that there *is* no "business as usual"! :)
That's one of the most intriguing things about them - scientifically, or for
the casual observer. However, although no one FULLY understands atmospheric
phenomena related to meteors, or the composition and dynamics of meteoroids
themselves, we do have some pretty good ideas: in fact, the very value of us
amateurs going out with dedication to record and report meteors night after
night, is that the scientific community DOES use our data to gradually reach
a consensus on successive questions in meteor research over the years!
Fortunately or unfortunately, though, in order for that process (which is
really the process of scientific discovery) to progress at all, we must do
certain things: our amateur data must be reliably, objectively gathered and
reported, with the use of techniques that a consensus of researchers can
understand and agree upon. AND we must be sure to apply standards of both
statistical and physical significance to that data when analyzing it...
Now anedcotes like that submitted by the original poster are WONDERFUL,
in that they intrigue us, and inspire us to keep looking up with wonder
and curiosity. However, they DO NOT meet these significance criteria by
themselves, no matter how many such anecdotes accumulate over the years.
And perhaps the most clear-cut illustration of this is the fact that, in
the past 6 years, we have endured this discussion of "What's going on
with all these fireballs all of a sudden???" no less than THREE SEPARATE
TIMES: Each time, the thread was initiated by an excited newcomer, and
each time after some weeks or months when nothing unusual materialized,
the conclusion was, "Yes, it is amazing how often you can sometimes get
to see very bright meteors, but no, there is nothing unusual going on."
Finally, let me say that NONE of this is to disparage the original post
in any way: Such experiences are exactly how many of us get inspired to
start recording meteors in the first place! And hearing someone else's
experience also reminds folks who already do recording of that very fact.
My only concern was with the above INTERPRETATION of the original post.
Clear skies all, and keep posting interesting observations and thoughts!
Lew Gramer
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